For the teams that have yet to take their bye this is the halfway point of the 2016 NFL season. Those teams with playoff aspirations need to win and win now. There are only 10 games scheduled for the 1pm and 4pm Eastern kickoff time slots as a number of teams have their bye. Here I am going to look at two of the early games.
Early kickoffs 5pm UK and 1pm Eastern
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
Team Markets
For the third week in a row I’m taking a New England game in my betting preview. There is an adage in US sports ‘don’t bet against a streak’. New England have 3 wins on the bounce and stand at 6-1 alone atop the AFC East. An argument could be made that had QB Tom Brady been available for all 7 games they would be 7-0. The lone defeat came against Buffalo when the Bills shut them out. There were extenuating circumstances for the Patriots in that game in that they were down to their third QB and he was injured. They will be all out for revenge on Sunday.
The Bills are 4-3 but coming off a really ugly performance in Miami last Sunday. Their vaunted defence was gouged by Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi for 200+ yards and they weren’t much better against the pass. The Patriots will roll out RB LaGarrette Blount and an efficient passing game that looks better than the Dolphins offence.
This is something of a grudge match – division rivalry and two coaches that don’t like each other. I think the Bills can run on this Patriot defence but without WR Sammie Watkins the big-play element is missing from their passing game. They are also likely to be missing star RB LeSean McCoy in the game. I just can’t see them keeping pace with the Patriots.
The spread at -5.5 looks attractive to me as a Patriots backer in this one and New England’s win streak reaches 4.
Player Markets
The one obvious choice is TE Rob Gronkowski. He won for us last week and his line this week is a very generous 73.5. In week 7 he was barely used in the first half but still ended up with nearly 100 receiving yards. Brady will target Gronkowski a lot in this game and I’m confident of a winning bet.
Early kickoffs 5pm UK and 1pm Eastern
Oakland Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The battle of the Pirate logos in Florida. The 5-2 Raiders take on the 3-3 Bucs. I’m at a loss as to why the Raiders are only just favoured to win this game. There are two streaks on the line – the Raiders are 4-0 on the road and Tampa have two wins. I think the Raiders extend their streak on Sunday.
The Raiders passing game looks like a huge mis-match with the Bucs secondary. QB Derek Carr has been sacked 7 times in 7 games and the Bucs do not have a strong pass rush. Carr should be able to get both his WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree going early in the game. I can see Oakland building a lead and then using a more conservative style of offence to keep Tampa under control. This worked well last week against Jacksonville and I see a repeat in week 8. Oakland won without needing to target top WR Amari Cooper in the game. The ball control style of play worked perfectly.
Tampa Bay’s top WR Mike Evans is not a great matchup this week with Raiders CB Sean Smith. Smith is at his best against the taller more powerful type of WR like Evans. I think Tampa can have success using RB Jacquizz Rodgers in the passing game. He will be too quick for the Raiders LBers to cover.
Another factor in the Raiders favour is turnover ratio. The Raiders are +8 on the season whilst the Bucs are -3. The Raiders just don’t turn the ball (except against the Chiefs) whilst the Bucs with QB Jameis Winston are more error prone.
I like Oakland and like them big here to move to 6-2 ahead of the week 9 showdown with Denver.
Player Markets
The standout line is 60.5 receving yards for Raiders WR Michael Crabtree. The Raiders seem to flip-flop their WR targets on an almost game-by-game basis. Last week Crabtree got the targets, in weeks 5 and 6 it was Cooper. This week I think both exceed their lines (Cooper is at 82.5). As Crabtree’s are lower he is the obvious choice especially as he will get the majority of red zone targets.
Week 8 Tips
WON – Back New England Patriots -5.5 to beat the Buffalo Bills with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.91 with SkyBet.
Bet here:
WON – Back Oakland Raiders to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.92 with Unibet.
Bet here:
WON – Back Rob Gronkowski to exceed 73.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
WON – Back Michael Crabtree to exceed 60.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on both here:
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