It is Week 9 of the NFL season. A number of teams are on their bye this week but there are still some interesting matchups for us to look at. Two games stand out from the Sunday 1pm and 4pm kickoffs.
Early Game – 1 pm Eastern 6 pm UK
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns
Team Markets
The team with the best record in the NFC (Dallas) take on the team with the worst record in the NFL (Cleveland). This has mismatch and blowout written all over it!
I’m going to stick to the ‘don’t bet against the streak’ adage again this week with this game. Dallas are on a roll with 6 straight wins. They are being powered by a dominant OL and running game in combination with an efficient passing attack. Due to the offence being effective the defence has been able to be opportunistic and take chances. This has led to turnovers and great field position for the offence.
Cleveland on the other had have lost all 8 games this season. They have been competitive for some of those games, including week 8, but ultimately lose the 4th quarter. The carousel of QBs hasn’t helped them find any stability on offence. They have two decent performers on offence in RB Isiah Crowell and WR Terelle Pryor but I fear this won’t be enough on Sunday.
The Browns defence is weak in the front 7. They really are no match for the Cowboys OL and I can see RB Ezekiel Elliott running wild in this one. Dallas will control the clock forcing Cleveland to throw a lot. Tee Cowboys pass-rush can tee off and try to force turnovers.
I really like the Cowboys in this game on the spread at odds of 1.95 at -6.5.
Player Markets
The Cowboys lead the NFL is rushing yards per game at 164. Cleveland’s defence is 31st in the league against the run giving up 143.8 yards per game. The line for Ezekiel Elliott is quite high at 108.5 but that is on par with his per game average this season. I can see Elliott easily crossing the 120 yard barrier here.
Cole Beasley has performed well for us this season already. He averages over 60 receiving yards per game and has a line here of 48.5. The Brown’s secondary has injury issues and Beasley will be dangerous in the slot. The success of the running game will open up the play-action passing game and I think Beasley romps past this line.
Late Game – 4 pm Eastern 9 pm UK
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Team Markets
The 3-4 Saints travel to San Francisco to play the 1-6 49ers. The Saints must win this game to stay in contention with Atlanta and Tampa Bay in the NFC South division. San Francisco are a mess. They cannot stop the run at all and have a spluttering offence without any real star power or explosive performers.
On paper this too shouldn’t be close. The Saints are huge favourites to win on the road and I think the line of -3.5 for the Saints is very generous of the bookmakers. New Orleans is number 1 in the NFL in passing yards per game and number 2 in overall offence. In contrast San Francisco have the 30th ranked defence overall (32nd against the run and 7th against the pass).
I don’t think the 49ers will have an answer to Saints QB Drew Brees in this game. The Saints might run a little more than normal and then let Brees pick apart the 49ers defence. San Francisco simply don not have the weapons to keep up with the Saints in this game. The 49ers passing game is spotty and is coming up against an improving Saints defence. The Saints will win here with relative ease.
Player Markets
Drew Brees averages over 330 passing yards per game so far in the 2016 season. His line here is 273.5, a mark that he can and often exceeds in a half. I like Brees on the overs in this market.
In week 8 Saints RB Mark Ingram fumbled early in the game and wasn’t seen on the field again in the game. Tim Hightower replaced him and was effective with over 80 yards. I’m not sure of the status on who starts in week 9 but there is a temptation to take the unders on Ingram’s rushing line of 56.5. Then again, the way the 49ers defend the run, a backup form the bench could get 50 yards. This is only worth a small punt!
Week 9 – Sunday Games – Tips
WON – Back Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) to beat the Cleveland Browns with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.95 with Betfair.
Bet here:
WON – Back New Orleans Saints (-3.5) to beat the San Francisco 49ers with a 3.5/10 stake at 1.95 with BWin.
Bet here:
Back Ezekiel Elliot to exceed 108.5 rushing yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
WON – Bet on Cole Beasley to exceed 48.5 receiving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
WON – Back Drew Brees to exceed 273.5 passing yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Mark Ingram to fail to get 56.5 rushing yards with a 2.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back them all here:
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