The last set of group matches at the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals begin on Thursday when a singles group and a doubles group conclude to offer up the first two semi-finalists in both draws on another high quality day of tennis in Turin.
It is the day where Carlos Alcaraz will look to book his spot in the semi-final of the competition, although it will need a hefty series of outcomes to deny him a place in the last four. The other spot is very much up for grabs though.
Day Session
Kevin Krawietz & Tim Puetz vs Simone Bolelli & Andrea Vavassori
We begin the day as ever in the doubles draw where we have a dead rubber with the already eliminated defending champions Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz seeing their title defence end when they face the Italian duo Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori who already know they will be advancing to the semi-final.
These two met here last year when the German pair won 75 64 but you sense the boot is on the other foot this time around. The Italians were always going to be motivated to perform well in the tournament and that is how it has played out but I always think that subconsciously the team already through in these things can take their eye off the ball and save themselves for Saturday, although admittedly that tends to happen more in the Friday groups. Krawietz and Puetz won’t want to depart without a win so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a German win but the dead rubber nature of it makes me leave this one alone.
Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaur
The singles match in the day session sees Taylor Fritz looking to make it into the semi-finals for the second year in succession when he takes on the Australian player Alex de Minaur who needs a straight sets win and some help from others later in the day to stay in the competition.
These are never easy matches to bet on because the equations change with each set but the key is to ignore all that and focus on the matchup itself and based on what we’ve seen so far this week Fritz has to be a worthy favourite. He pushed Carlos Alcaraz all the way after easing past Lorenzo Musetti to continue his love affair with this venue after he made the final here last year. De Minaur lost to Musetti in a three-set clash despite the Italian physically looking jaded. The evidence so far suggests that de Minaur hasn’t got the firepower to get the ball through the court but we know that Fritz has. It will be interesting to see if the de Minaur intensity drops if he loses the first set as he’ll be out of the competition. Fritz definitely advances with a straight sets win so his intensity won’t drop and at odds against I think a straight sets win feels the likely outcome for the American.
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Night Session
Julian Cash & Lloyd Glasspool vs Marcel Granollers & Horacio Zeballos
The doubles match in the night session is knockout tennis when the number one seeds Julian Cash and Lloyd Glasspool go in search of the win which sends them into the semi-finals when they face Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos who are in the same position.
Unlike in the singles matches on Thursday, both teams are in a familiar position so the best team on the night will go through to the semi-finals. Cash and Glasspool fluffed their lines in their opening game but looked much better in the second one while Granollers and Zeballos have done things the other way around. These two teams have only met once in their past and that was in the Wimbledon semi-final this year when the British pair came through in straight sets. Conditions are a bit slower here though which will bring the Latin pair into play. I hope it does anyway as they are my outright tip and so I’m effectively willing them on here anyway without needing another bet on it.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti
The final match of the day will see Carlos Alcaraz aiming to complete a clean sweep of three wins in his group when he meets the home ace Lorenzo Musetti who could yet escape into the semi-finals at the first attempt.
Alcaraz has had a routine win over Alex de Minaur and a much harder one over Taylor Fritz and a win here will send him into the last four as the group winner but Musetti knows a straight sets win will send him into the semi-finals on his debut in the tournament and could even dump the Spaniard out depending on the result of the other game. That result will sway this one because if Fritz hasn’t beaten de Minaur then any Musetti win will send him through and Alcaraz will already be through. Until we know the result of that clash there isn’t a great deal of point predicting the outcome of this one so I’ll sit this out and stick with the punt earlier in the day for a bet here.
Tips
Back T.Fritz to beat A.de Minaur 2-0 for a 3/10 stake at 2.15 with Boylesports
Back him here:
