It is semi-final day at the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals on Saturday with the singles and the doubles tournaments determining which two will compete in the final of the season ending competition out in Turin later in the weekend.
We’ve got the top two seeds in both draws on show in these semi-finals so there is absolutely no doubt about the quality being guaranteed throughout the day as 12 players take to the court to battle for a place in the final.
Day Session
Simone Bolelli & Andrea Vavassori vs Henry Patten & Harri Heliovaara
The opening match of the day will see the home pairing of Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori going up against the number two seeds Henry Patten and Harri Heliovaara in a bit of a clash in styles on what should be a great way to get semi-final Saturday up and running.
The Italians have been a welcome surprise package in the tournament but they did lose their last group game and I’m always one for form not being like a tap so it will be interesting to see if they can find their intensity again and get back to where they were in their opening two matches. Patten and Heliovaara have already played a knockout match having had to win their final group game to make it through to this semi-final and that might be an advantage. These two have met once this season at the Australian Open and it went the distance and lasted over three hours so we might be wise to expect a lengthy affair here. That pressurised knockout game feels key for Patten and Heliovaara for me but the prices on this one feels about right so I’ll leave this opening game alone.
Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur
The first singles semi-final sees the other home representative left in the tournament taking to the court when the defending champion Jannik Sinner continues his title defence when he faces an Alex de Minaur who is the very definition of a player playing with the house money.
Sinner cruised through the group stage with three wins from three and didn’t drop a set and it would be a surprise if that run changes here, although he is backing up from the day before which isn’t always easy at this stage of the year. De Minaur was outclassed in his opening two matches but when push came to shove he saw off a very disappointing Taylor Fritz and got the result he needed to book his place in this semi-final when his chances of progressing looked to be well behind him. He might be playing with the house money in that regard but he is up against a man he has a terrible record against in Sinner. These two have faced each other 12 times and Sinner has won the lot with a set score of 27-2. To say there is a huge gulf between these two would be an understatement. Two of those meetings have been over the last six weeks so it is hard to see where de Minaur gets into this contest. You can get a 20.5 line at a decent enough price on the under and when you consider that six of the Sinner wins in their nine best of three sets matches have seen the under cash, I’m very much interested here. Four of their last five matches on an indoor hard court has seen under 20.5 games land and there is nothing to suggest de Minaur, will take this any further.
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Night Session
Joe Salisbury & Neal Skupski vs Julian Cash & Lloyd Glasspool
We are guaranteed a British pairing in the doubles final on Sunday as the second semi-final sees four Brits taking to the court when the number one seeds Julian Cash and Lloyd Glasspool face off against the pairing of Joe Salisbury and Neal Skupski.
Salisbury and Skupski are enjoying a wonderful week so far and have won all three matches that they have played. That will give them plenty of confidence as they look to complete the perfect tournament over the weekend but the number one seeds have basically been playing knockout tennis since the second match of their competition and having won two matches under a great deal of pressure, including beating the dangerous pair of Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos in their final group game, the best team on the circuit this season certainly shouldn’t be short of belief in their chances here. These two pairs have met three times in 2025 and Cash and Glasspool have won all three matches but the last two went to a deciding set which suggests we could be in for a close contest here. As with the afternoon doubles match, the odds look about right so I’m happy to sit this one out.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
The last of the semi-finals sees the newly crowned year end world number one Carlos Alcaraz taking on one of the form players of the last few months in the form of Felix Auger-Aliassime for a spot in what would be a first ATP World Tour Finals title clash for whoever it is who comes through here.
Alcaraz will go into the match as the favourite and having won all three of his group matches it is hard to argue with that but Auger-Aliassime won the two that mattered in his group, including seeing off former winner Alexander Zverev on Friday night so he is entitled to lay it down to the Spaniard in this one. Their past battles are only 4-3 to Alcaraz, although the Spaniard has won the last four meetings but when it comes to indoor hard courts the Canadian is 2-0 against his foe and that might be significant. This promises to be a pearler of a semi-final between two men who look in tip top form but I’m hoping the upset can happen here as I’m effectively on FAA at just over 12/1 having backed him each way before a ball was hit. I think he’s a better chance than that so in what should be a cracking match I’ll leave that outright to be my interest in this one, although those who want to get involved could probably do worse than expect a lengthy clash.
Tips
Back J.Sinner vs A.de Minaur – Under 20.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Boylesports
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