The West Coast swing on the PGA Tour comes to an end this week but what a way to bow out. If you like your golf tough then the Northern Trust Open is the place for you this week as for the first time this year a golf event has an almost major feel to it.
Both the field that has been assembled for the tournament and the golf course at Riviera are of major standard so we are in for a really good tournament, an event which has a boost to its profile by the addition of a certain Rory McIlroy for the first time.
The course at Riviera Country Club played so hard last year that James Hahn won the tournament in a playoff despite posting just six under par for his four rounds. I don’t anticipate it being quite so hard this year but if you think it will be easy think again!
Riviera Country Club is a par 71 which measures 7,322 yards. You would think length is a big factor around here but that isn’t really the case. The rough is usually juicy, the greens are tiny and full of undulation and the fairways aren’t easy to find. However you look at this golf course it is tough.
The greens here are so tough to hit they actually ranked hardest to hit on the entire tour last year while putting from inside five feet was statistically the lowest of the year too so we are definitely looking for pure ball strikers and solid putters this week. Accuracy off the tee is an advantage too so a good all-round game should prosper.
James Hahn defends the title off the back of a decent Phoenix Open a couple of weeks ago. He is 150/1 to make a successful defence but really the market centres around two men as you would expect. That is of course Spieth and McIlroy.
Spieth is generally 13/2 with McIlroy half a point bigger at 7/1. Of the two I’d be backing Spieth all day long here. McIlroy’s putter has been cold for far too long now and this is his first experience of these greens. Spieth is a wizard with the short stick and he went well here last year. Both are a touch short in a field of this quality on a course as tough as this.
In fact most of the market leaders look short including Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama who are both 18/1. Justin Rose’s record here is best described as poor yet he is 20/1 with Bubba Watson and Jimmy Walker the only other men shorter than 30/1 at 25/1 and 28/1 respectively.
I’m opposing the market leaders and siding with a former champion here in Adam Scott. Technically the Australian is a former champion here but the year he won weather reduced the event to 36 holes so he isn’t a proper champion so to speak.
One thing he is though is one of the purest ball strikers the game has ever seen and he is sure to be competitive on this course purely on that. Nobody averages nearer the pin for proximity on the entire tour this year which backs that up. He has actually surprised people with his proficiency with the short stick though and that is encouraging as he’ll need to putt well here.
The tougher the track the better Scott tends to play his golf and at 40/1 I’m getting involved in him straight away as my main bet this week. Scott was in the top 10 on his last visit here in 2012 and I fancy him to go better this time around.
Another man I feel has another big week in him around this track is Keegan Bradley. I’m not the American’s biggest fan in all truth but you can’t argue with his record around here which has seen him finish runner up and in a tie for fourth in the last 4-5 years here.
I’m not entirely sure what it is about Bradley that gets his mojo here because you wouldn’t say he’s the best ball striker in the world and he has had his putting issues like everyone else but his record does suggest 66/1 is a bit big and I’ll pay to see if that’s the case.
I can’t resist a little dabble on Andy Sullivan this week. Those of you who have read this site and my blog before it will know I’m a massive fan of the Englishman and this course should suit him nicely.
There is no weakness to Sullivan’s game but if there is a strength it really is in his iron play and his work on the greens which is ideal for this track. A lack of experience could count against him I guess but less so these days I would say and at 66/1 I just have to back Sullivan again this week with his game a perfect match for here.
My final two picks are huge priced runners and we’ll start with Ernie Els. Els is another former champion here who has been in the doldrums for far too long for a man with such a beautiful golf swing. He might just be coming out the other side of them though and that has me interested.
I noted at the Dubai Desert Classic, where he was right in the mix at halfway, that he has found something with the putter again and he putted beautifully that week. The going got a little tough for him in the third round there but I won’t hold that against him.
The South African knows every inch of this golf course and still hits the ball so pure and true so if his putter lights up again and the things he has worked on come to fruition this week he might just keep us interested deep into Sunday evening.
When we look for good putters we look no further than Steve Stricker and it is no surprise the veteran putting god is a former winner here too. It is fair to say his form is patchy at best so far this season but the tournaments he has entered haven’t really suited him. This one does.
Stricker is solid off the tee but get an iron and that putter into his hands and he comes alive and if he strikes the ball well this week with his quality with the putter he almost has to run well. His real big events are going to be few and far between with the nature of the PGA Tour these days but this is a week he can contend and I’ll pay to see just how well he does that.
PLACED – Back A.Scott to win Northern Trust Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-6)
Back K.Bradley to win Northern Trust Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Sullivan to win Northern Trust Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back E.Els to win Northern Trust Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back S.Stricker to win Northern Trust Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
