It is Super Bowl week out in America which means that the PGA Tour heads to the desert for the WM Phoenix Open, the best attended tournament of the year and the one where great golf and TV are guaranteed over the four days.
Nick Taylor certainly played some good golf here last year when he won the tournament in a playoff, edging out Charley Hoffman in the process. He is back in the field looking to make a successful defence of the title but plenty of decent names are out to stop him.
Recent Winners
2024 – Nick Taylor
2023 – Scottie Scheffler
2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Brooks Koepka
2020 – Webb Simpson
2019 – Rickie Fowler
2018 – Gary Woodland
2017 – Hideki Matsuyama
2016 – Hideki Matsuyama
2015 – Brooks Koepka
The Course
All golf fans will know all about TPC Scottsdale and plenty who aren’t big supporters of the sport will do too with the famous 16th hole. This isn’t a long course by any stretch of the imagination. It is a par 71 but it only measures 7,261 yards which with the dry desert air makes it a relatively short course. There was a redesign of the track in 2015 and since then it has been the longer hitters who’ve held sway in the main.
Although there isn’t a huge challenge off the tee here you do need to drive the ball well because the desert areas aren’t fun but generally this is a test of approach into the large greens and then putting on them. Since the refurb only top drawer winners have been produced so this might not be an event for the rookies or those not accustomed with winning.
The Field
This tournament is situated in between a pair of Signature Events but such is the popularity of this event and the razzmatazz that surrounds it, a decent field is always guaranteed here and that is certainly the case this week, helped out by the appearance of the world number one Scottie Scheffler who continues to work his way into 2025 after injury. He joins the defending champion Nick Taylor in the field so we have the winners of the last three renewals teeing it up this week.
The rest of the home charge will be led by Justin Thomas, who is always popular at this event, while the likes of Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala and Billy Horschel are in the field too. There is a strong international showing at this tournament too with Hideki Matsuyama leading the way but the likes of Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Corey Conners and Si Woo Kim all in the field as well while the European challenge comes via Sepp Straka, Rasmus Hojgaard, Matt Fitzpatrick and Robert MacIntyre among others.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler is comfortably the world number one and was the winner of this tournament in both 2022 and 2023 and he is no bigger than 14/5 to add the 2025 running to his CV as well. He returned to action with a solid effort at Pebble Beach last week without ever really contending but you would imagine he would come on for the run at a course which really suits his game. If he putts well this week he is entitled to be tough to beat but the price certainly isn’t for me.
Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama come next in the betting at 16/1. Thomas offered up a sub-par showing at Pebble Beach last week where he was caught out by the tough conditions in the third round while Matsuyama arrives here having already won The Sentry this season and was twice a winner here shortly after the refurb. He has also finished second around here too so of the pair the Japanese star would probably be the most popular.
Sam Burns is next in the market at 22/1 on the best prices. There is a school of thought that he is trending towards winning this tournament having finished T6 and T3 in the last two years. That certainly isn’t a surprise. He is long off the tee and his putting is very strong. The question would be whether he can keep the ball in play long enough for that putting to come good but he would appear a perfectly acceptable price given his credentials.
Sungjae Im is the only other player who can be backed at shorter than 30/1 this week. He is 25/1 on the best prices. Consistency is very much the game for the Korean and already he has a pair of top five finishes in 2025 so he arrives here in solid form. He has a couple of top 10 finishes here too but my only concern is he maybe doesn’t have the personality that is required to deal with the frenzy of the stadium hole over the course of the week. He could be an each way play but I’d fancy others to win.
Main Bets
Tom Kim was one of my bets last week and I was getting excited for at least a place as he approached the last hole but a terrible tee shot put paid to that but I noticed he was hitting the ball well in the TGL Golf event and nothing I saw last week changed my mind in that regard. He isn’t going to encounter the windy conditions that caught many out last week so he can play aggressive golf here which is ideal for his skill set. He has the temperament to relish in the madness and looks a perfectly acceptable price to me given the way his game looks in really good order.
Another man who is in decent touch is Sepp Straka and at 40/1 I think he is the other good bet here. Anyone who wins at The American Express with the score he posted is clearly hitting the ball well and he was in contention last week when a combination of a bit of illness and the tough conditions exacerbating that caught him out down the stretch but the Austrian is hitting the ball brilliantly, which we have come to expect from him, his putter is hot and he has fire in his belly as he wants to make the Ryder Cup team. He is a big runner this week.
Outsiders
Andrew Novak is a pretty obvious outsider pick this week. He was third at the Farmers Insurance Open and then followed that up with a very creditable T13 at Pebble Beach last week. He defied the course form belief to close with a top 10 on debut here a year ago and with that knowledge of the event and knowing what to expect and things we can expect him to challenge well again here. Form is often a big thing at this time of the year and Novak definitely has it. He also has the all-round game to offer up another solid showing here.
Charley Hoffman was only downed in a playoff here a year ago but even though he is getting on a bit he hasn’t slowed down too much and I think he is worth having faith in this week. He was T5 at The American Express which shows he is still capable of scoring well and that he is hitting the ball nicely and we know he has the temperament to take on everything that comes along in this tournament. I’m a little surprised that you can get a three figure price on the veteran but I’m happy to pay to see if he can go one better than went 12 months ago.
Tips
Back T.Kim to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back S.Straka to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Novak to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
Back C.Hoffman to win Phoenix Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Spreadex (1/5 1-6)
