Ahead of the Premier League season getting underway on Friday night, there is just enough time to take a look at a market which is always a popular one in the form of the Top Goalscorer offering, where we go in search of the winner of the Golden Boot.
The Premier League has some of the best strikers in the world in it so this is naturally going to be a competitive market over the course of what looks like being one of the more attack dominated competitions yet.
Recent Winners
2020-21 – Harry Kane
2019-20 – Jamie Vardy
2018-19 – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mo Salah & Sadio Mane
2017-18 – Mo Salah
2016-17 – Harry Kane
2015-16 – Harry Kane
2014-15 – Sergio Aguero
2013-14 – Luis Suarez
2012-13 – Robin van Persie
2011-12 – Robin van Persie
The Favourites
Harry Kane has won the Golden Boot market in three of the last six seasons and is clearly the best out and out striker in the competition. One thing which might hold him back is a proposed move to Manchester City which might mean he doesn’t play every game this season while such a move is negotiated and he gets up to speed having had little in the way of a pre-season after the Euro 2020 competition. Whether it is at Tottenham or City, Kane is likely to score a lot of goals but I am concerned over his workload and potential for injuries so although he’s the winner if he stays fit the 7/2 isn’t for me.
Mo Salah comes next in the betting at around about the 9/2 mark. There is an obvious detriment to his chances in that he’ll be off to the Africa Cup of Nations halfway through the campaign. Usually you could ride that but in the world we’re in right now his return could be delayed or he may have to quarantine or could contract the virus while he’s away so I’m not really interested in him either even though while he is in the country and playing you would expect him to score a lot of goals.
Romelu Lukaku has added another competitive dimension to the proceedings with his arrival at Chelsea. He has a huge price tag to fill and would appear a much better player now than when he was last in the competition with Manchester United, although we’ll only really know whether that is the case when he is up and running. Chelsea certainly don’t lack for chances so if the Serie A version of the Belgian turns up he could very easily be the one to beat. He won’t be on penalties which is a negative though.
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Profile
If you look at the list of top scorers above, we don’t need to be on someone who is going to play for a champion side which offers up a lot more options from a betting point of view. That said it stands to reason that the teams higher up the table are going to score more goals so in theory players for those clubs are going to be more likely to top score.
I think the thing to concentrate on is the need to be the main man. If we can be on a penalty taker as well then that is all the more sweet as he’ll get a few cheap goals in that manner. When you narrow it down using those trends the market is a little easier to manage.
Betting
This isn’t a market I want to go too mad on before the season starts. I say that for a couple of reasons, the first being that this is a weird season and a Covid ping at the wrong time can put a dent into the hopes of anyone in the field. The other reason is that there is still the better part of three weeks left in the transfer window so a lot more strikers are going to come and go in the competition which is going to have a huge impact on things. The window closes in the international break though so maybe I’ll have a much stronger look at the market then.
In saying all that, there appears to be a forgotten man in the betting this year in Jamie Vardy. You can get 33/1 on the Leicester marksman to be the top scorer this season and that looks a little too big on a side which has a lot of creative attacking talent at their disposal. While Leicester share the goals around a little more with Kelechi Iheanacho up alongside Vardy there is no doubt that the England man remains the main man. He is also on penalties which is a massive thing and as long as he stays injury free he looks a huge price.
Tips
Back J.Vardy Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-4)
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