The title race is in the spotlight in the Premier League once again on Friday night when the leaders Arsenal host bottom of the pile Southampton in what can only be described as a massive match for both teams at the Emirates Stadium.
Arsenal have hit the buffers in the last week or so but will move seven points clear of title rivals Manchester City with a win ahead of their showdown next week. Somehow, Southampton are just four points from safety and anything they get here would be very welcome.
Where to watch
The match will be shown as part of the Friday Night Football programme on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League. The show begins at 7pm with the match kicking off at 8pm.
Arsenal
It looked as though Arsenal were putting themselves into a position where they were going to be very difficult to reel in in this title race but a couple of draws from favourable positions in their last two outings have just left them vulnerable to a late Manchester City charge. Were they to fail to win this match then they would need to go to the Etihad next week and probably win the game if they are going to win the title, and clearly that isn’t an easy task.
The Gunners have come unstuck a little defensively in recent times. They have surrendered 2-0 leads to Liverpool and West Ham in their last two matches and have only kept one clean sheet in their last six. That suggests the strain of leading the way for so long might just be catching up with them, but on the flip side of that they are having no troubles in front of goal so if they can sort the defence out, which won’t be easy with key men out, then they are still well in the title picture.
Southampton
This has been a terrible season for Southampton. It started before a ball was kicked with a number of strange moves in the market and at no stage have they really ever looked convincing. They are onto their third manager this term but while Ruben Selles began well in terms of results, things have hit a wall in recent times and they head to London with just two points from their last six matches, albeit they have only been pulled apart by Manchester City in that run.
Southampton have clearly set their stall out to be hard to beat in recent matches but there will come a time when they have to abandon that approach. If you think they are going to need a minimum of 36 points to remain in the Premier League this term, that means that they need to find 13 points from their last seven matches, or four wins from their last seven. That will need to see them take some risks to try and win rather than look to stay in games and hope their defence holds up. That defence has suddenly started to leak again which puts a big hole in their strategy.
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Team News
Oleksandr Zinchenko missed the draw with West Ham with a groin injury and Mikel Arteta wasn’t convinced he would be available for this match. William Saliba, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Mohamed Elneny are all out.
Southampton will be without Ainsley Maitland-Niles for this fixture as he is unable to play against his parent club but they do have Mislav Orsic back in contention to feature. Che Adams and Mohammed Salisu will both miss out with injury.
Betting
I think we have to be looking at goals as the order of the day here. Arsenal are generally relentless against the bottom sides, particularly at home. Their last four home matches have come against teams in the bottom eight and they have scored four goals in three of those and three in the other and I don’t see that trend not continuing here. There could very easily be a scenario where the title is decided on goal difference and with the Gunners seven adrift of City in that respect this is a chance to close that gap.
The thing which might assist the goals is Arsenal have suddenly come apart at the seams defensively and while Southampton certainly aren’t the most free scoring team in the league, there is always James Ward-Prowse around to do something special if the Saints can’t get through from open play. Southampton did score against City a couple of weeks ago though which offers further encouragement and given that the Asian goal line for this one is only at three I fancy the over to land in this one.
Tips
Back Over 3 goals for a 4/10 stake at 1.81 with Bet365
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