The Premier League season kicks off on Friday evening but before it does there is just a chance to have a look at one of the more popular ante-post markets which is the one for the top goalscorer, which is always a competitive heat with the quality on show in this competition.
Mo Salah and Son Heung-min scored the joint most goals last season but with the likes of Erling Haaland, Darwin Nunez and others brought into the division this term the race for the Golden Boot is expected to be very strong.
Recent Winners
2021-22 – Mo Salah & Son Heung-min
2020-21 – Harry Kane
2019-20 – Jamie Vardy
2018-19 – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Mo Salah & Sadio Mane
2017-18 – Mo Salah
2016-17 – Harry Kane
2015-16 – Harry Kane
2014-15 – Sergio Aguero
2013-14 – Luis Suarez
2012-13 – Robin van Persie
The Favourites
When Manchester City signed Erling Haaland it sent shockwaves through the division. He is widely regarded as the best number nine in the world and looks to be the missing piece in the jigsaw for Pep Guardiola. He is no bigger than 11/4 to top score in his first season in the Premier League and while there is nothing to say he won’t do that, I’m always a little wary that players from overseas can take time to bed into the way of English football. I also wonder if he’ll be saved for key Champions League matches too.
Mo Salah is 9/2 to get his hands on the Golden Boot once again and when you consider that nobody scored more than him last term even though he spent a month away at the Africa Cup of Nations, he is perfectly entitled to be the second favourite and could fancy his chances of getting the job done again. I sense Liverpool are going to rotate their forwards a lot more but Salah is on penalties and that is never bad for a top scorer bet. If you finish above Salah you probably win this so the 9/2 is a fair price.
Harry Kane has only got his hands on this gong once since the 2016-17 season and it will be interesting to see if the England captain can do so again here. There are two obvious negatives for Kane. The first is that Tottenham have added to their attacking depth so Antonio Conte could be likely to rotate throughout the season. The second is that England could go deep at the World Cup and Kane would be a major part of any success there which could impact his fitness in the second part of the season.
Gabriel Jesus has been well-backed in the lead up to the season getting underway and at 12/1 there are many who think his move to Arsenal will see him going well. I certainly expect him to go better as a number nine at Arsenal than at City where he was employed out wide for large periods. The question is whether Arsenal will be good enough for him to get the chances needed and I’m less sure of that. If there was any value in the Brazilian it might have gone now.
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Profile
If you look at the list of top scorers above, we don’t need to be on someone who is going to play for a champion side which offers up a lot more options from a betting point of view. That said it stands to reason that the teams higher up the table are going to score more goals so in theory players for those clubs are going to be more likely to top score.
I think the thing to concentrate on is the need to be the main man. If we can be on a penalty taker as well then that is all the more sweet as he’ll get a few cheap goals in that manner. When you narrow it down using those trends the market is a little easier to manage.
Betting
I took Jamie Vardy in this market last season and he finished sixth but he missed around two months of the campaign and then when he was back he was saved for the European games the longer the season went on. There are no European matches for Brendan Rodgers to save his main man for this time around so that is very much a tick in the box of the Leicester striker. Although Kasper Schmeichel has left, no outfield players of any note have departed the King Power Stadium so the chances should continue to come for the Foxes’ markman.
There will be a number of players in the league this season who will have to be managed smartly either due to European commitments or involvement in the World Cup. Vardy isn’t one of them and if he can avoid injury this season then there is plenty to think that the winner of this three seasons ago can push the rest again. Vardy bagged 15 goals last season which was only two behind Harry Kane who came fourth. With bookmakers paying top four here I’ll pay to see if Vardy can make the frame again.
Tips
Back J.Vardy Top Scorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-4)
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