An intriguing weekend of Premier League action at both ends of the table gets underway on Saturday when seven matches take place across three kick off times on a day which feels pivotal to a few sides even this early in the campaign.
This is a slightly different look Saturday in that although there are still two TV games for us to enjoy during it, they both come later in the piece rather than bookend the action like they normally would do. The other games have updates in the usual places.
3pm Matches
Five of the seven matches take place in the traditional 3pm slot on Saturday afternoon where we get a rare sighting of the league leaders Arsenal. They will be looking to open up a seven point gap at the top of the table when they make the trip north to take on Burnley at Turf Moor. Manchester United are suddenly the next highest team on show in the first part of the day and they are on their travels too. They head to the City Ground to take on a struggling Nottingham Forest side who will be under Sean Dyche on home soil in the Premier League for the first time.
There is no shortage of intrigue in the other three matches. Two teams at the wrong end of the table face off in a key game at Craven Cottage when Fulham host bottom of the table Wolverhampton Wanderers while there is a London derby at Selhurst Park as two sides who are going well this term meet as Crystal Palace welcome Brentford. The other match looks an entertaining one on paper as Brighton and Hove Albion face Leeds United at the Amex Stadium.
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Late Games
That leaves us with a couple of late matches which are saved for TV with the first of them being another London derby as two rivals meet in the north of the capital when Tottenham Hotspur look to build on their win over Everton last weekend when they entertain a Chelsea side who will be looking to find some consistency. The last match of the day takes us to Anfield where there will be plenty of pressure on the home side Liverpool to arrest a terrible slump in form. They welcome an Aston Villa side who look like they are starting to click into a groove and will be eyeing up a win to add to their victory over Manchester City last week.
Betting
I like three bets over the course of a day where I’m expecting to see the goals flow in most of the matches. That can begin at Craven Cottage where I think odds against on over 2.5 goals is a good bet. Wolves look all at sea at the back and have just conceded three times to relatively goal shy Burnley but they are starting to find their feet going the other way. They scored twice in that game and three more against Chelsea in the Carabao Cup in midweek. Leeds and Everton are two other sides who have scored three against Wolves this season so Fulham should be happy that they will find the net here. Only Arsenal and Chelsea have kept Fulham out this term but the latter needed some terrible VAR calls in their favour. Leeds are the only team not to score against the Cottagers so although I wouldn’t put anyone off taking both teams to score, a 1-1 draw does neither any favours here so in that situation I would expect both to push for a winner so the slightly bigger price on over 2.5 goals makes sense to me.
I like the very same bet in the match between Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea where goals surely have to come naturally in this one. The numbers will suggest that only Arsenal have a better defensive record than Tottenham this season but the underlying ones will show something very different. They have an xGA of 10.9 so the seven goals they have conceded is an overperformance. At the other end of the pitch, Chelsea are sixth for xGA so this one is about the attacks for me. These two are the joint leading scorers in the Premier League and I fully expect goals to flow in this one and extend a run of five of the last six Tottenham games going over 2.5 goals in the Premier League and six on the spin for Chelsea.
I also think the day will conclude with goals when Liverpool entertain Aston Villa. The obvious bet here is to take Villa to get a result given the pressure that Liverpool are suddenly under but there is too much quality in their side for that to continue and Villa’s record on this ground is a massive turn off to their chances. I see no reason why Villa can’t score though. Liverpool are terrible defensively and Villa have the options to take full advantage of that but at the other end I expect Villa to be under pressure and crack at some point. The goal line for this one is up at 3, which is higher than the other two but not especially high for a Liverpool game. Only two Liverpool matches this season have gone under 3 goals and one of those was against Arsenal. Villa arrive at Anfield with four wins on the spin in the Premier League so they should contribute to the scoring and over 3 goals looks the play in this one.
Tips
Back Fulham vs Wolves – Over 2.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
Back Tottenham vs Chelsea – Over 2.5 Asian goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back Liverpool vs Aston Villa – Over 3 Asian goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Bet365
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