We move into the final quarter of the regular season in the Premier League Darts campaign on Thursday night with the eight players heading back to the UK to compete in Night 13 which takes place in Liverpool.
That means Luke Littler will get plenty of home support although Michael Smith isn’t based too far from the Merseyside venue and he will want plenty of backing too as we go about getting closer to finding out who will be at the o2 on finals night next month.
Luke Littler vs Gerwyn Price
We open up the night with the supposed home man Luke Littler on show. The teenager will look to cement his spot in the top four when he goes up against a Gerwyn Price for whom time is beginning to run out if he still harbours ambitions of making it through to the o2.
Price finally got back to winning ways in the Premier League last week when he took care of Rob Cross in the quarter final before losing to Michael Smith in the semi-final and the Welshman will know he really needs a nightly win soon if he is going to be in contention for a spot at finals night. Littler suffered a rare quarter final loss in Rotterdam last week when he went down to Smith and having also shot out of the European Tour event over the weekend fairly early he will be looking to come up with the goods in this one. I’m not going to pick a winner here, although I would edge for Littler if I had to, but I will back over 6.5 180s in this one. These two both throw to a similar rhythm and I expect them to get into a groove. We know they both know where the 60 is and it is no surprise that their only previous quarter final this season had 10 180s in it. I like the over in this one.
Luke Humphries vs Nathan Aspinall
The second of the Liverpool quarter finals sees the man who came out on top in Rotterdam last week on show when Nathan Aspinall goes up against the world champion Luke Humphries in potentially the pick of the four starters on Thursday.
These two met in the semi-final in Rotterdam seven nights ago and it was Aspinall who pulled off something of a surprise victory on his way to winning the night and while not confirming his top four spot, certainly went a long way to staking his claim for it. Humphries will have been disappointed not to push on having seen off the home man Michael van Gerwen in the quarter final last week and will also be annoyed at not making the most of a chance to win another European Tour event at the weekend when Rob Cross downed him in the quarter finals after the world champion had got another win over Littler earlier in the weekend. Aspinall missed that event in Germany and it will be interesting to see if that has an impact here. I would expect Humphries to win this but Aspinall beating him last week is enough for me to leave this one alone.
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Peter Wright vs Michael van Gerwen
The third of the quarter finals in Liverpool on Thursday evening sees Peter Wright looking for just a third win of his campaign when he goes up against a Michael van Gerwen who is suddenly having one eye over his shoulder as the pack closes in on his top four spot.
Wright has had a season to forget and with a quarter of the campaign still to run he already knows he won’t be at the finals. That will allow him to free up and relax and try and show some of his best stuff. There has been a real all or nothing look to the van Gerwen form this week. With the exception of one week he has either lost in the quarter final or he has won the night and he’ll be hoping it is the latter here to keep the pack at bay. It is hard to go against van Gerwen in this one but Wright is free rolling from here so I could do without sweating on handicaps and things in that situation.
Michael Smith vs Rob Cross
The last of the quarter finals sees the finalist from last week in Michael Smith going up against a Rob Cross whose Premier League form has faded fast but who could have offered himself some hope with a decent outing in the European Tour event at the weekend.
Smith moved to within a couple of points of the top four with a good run in Rotterdam last week and he’ll be looking to follow that up here. Cross now sits 11 points off the top four so he probably needs to win at least two of the last four nights and go well in another if he is going to be at the o2 and when you consider that he has made just one final in 12 weeks that seems unlikely. The bet I like here is for Smith to average under 97.5. The only previous time these two have met in the Premier League was in the quarter final in week three and Smith average just 90.36. I always say averages are determined by the opponent finishing power and Cross isn’t fantastic in that regard and he doesn’t score well enough to leave Smith stranded in legs. Smith’s tournament average is 96.68 so he needs an above average performance here. I’m not sure we get it. He probably won’t need to deliver one.
Night 13 Betting
These nights are going to get more and more keenly contested and given how well Luke Littler and Luke Humphries have played this term, whenever both are in the same half of the draw I always think we can get some value out of the other end of it and that does appear to be the case this week. Only one of those two men will make the final as a maximum so this feels like a chance for the other four to make a bit of a move.
In truth, this is all about the two Michaels – Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith. Van Gerwen should beat Wright and Smith is a favourite to beat Cross so they should meet in the semi-final. Van Gerwen has won the last three meetings between these two in the Premier League but Smith is as good as on home soil as he is going to get this week. You can get 9/1 with the firms that are paying each way on the evening on the side of Smith, so 3/1 he gets to the final with the place terms. That feels like some value to me.
Tips
Back L.Littler vs G.Price – Over 6.5 180s for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Coral
Back M.Smith 3 dart average vs R.Cross – Under 97.5 for a 3/10 stake at 1.73 with Bet365
Back M.Smith to win Night 12 (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 with William Hill (1/3 1-2)
Back him here:
