The penultimate night of the Premier League Darts season takes us to Aberdeen on Thursday night where the race for the last spot at the o2 Arena for finals night intensifies on an evening which promises plenty once again.
Realistically we are down to three for one spot for the o2 and two of those challengers face off in the quarter final in Aberdeen in what is the biggest match of the season so far. We’re in for plenty of drama and tension you would imagine.
Michael van Gerwen vs Nathan Aspinall
On a night where the top two in the world meet in a quarter final, it says everything about this match that the opening game between Michael van Gerwen and Nathan Aspinall is comfortably the biggest one taking place in Aberdeen.
The reward for the winner of this quarter final is simple. Whoever it is will go into next week in fourth spot but the pair are likely to meet in the last eight again so this one is all about the psychological advantage ahead of that. Michael van Gerwen has the slightly greater incentive of knowing that if this is the night that his Premier League Darts weekly win drought comes to an end then he will qualify for the o2 Arena once again without needing to throw a dart in anger next week. That makes it imperative for Aspinall to win this match else even if MVG doesn’t go on and win the night, Aspinall probably has to win the night next week and would be running into Luke Littler in the last four in all likelihood. You would have to say that these two aren’t in great form. MVG has lost his last four matches in all competitions and Aspinall has lost six of his last seven so making a solid prediction of this one isn’t easy. One thing which we could use to separate them is that Aspinall has won three of their four meetings this season and if we use averages as a guide then ‘The Asp’ has had the higher one in the quarter final in three of the last four weeks so there is enough there to suggest that at 13/10 the value lies with the Englishman here.
Gerwyn Price vs Stephen Bunting
The second quarter final of the evening is largely a dead rubber in the overall picture as Gerwyn Price knows that he will be at the o2 in two weeks and Stephen Bunting knows that his maiden Premier League campaign will conclude in Sheffield next week.
This hasn’t been the season that Bunting would have wanted but you could argue that it has been so bad that he has a point to prove over the final two weeks and so it would be a surprise were he just to down tools here. Price will be using the last two regular season evenings to keep up his momentum ahead of the finals night where it is almost certain that he’ll be playing Luke Humphries in the semi-final. If we go by the form of the season so far then it is hard to go against Price here but the two have shared their Premier League battles and both were quite tight so with little competitive juice in this one I’m happy to leave this match alone from a betting point of view.
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Chris Dobey vs Rob Cross
The third quarter final of the night is knockout in every sense when Chris Dobey and Rob Cross go at it. The likelihood is that neither player will make it through to the o2 but whoever loses this quarter final will definitely be out of contention so we can expect both men to be giving their all here.
This is another match where the form of the two men isn’t the best and that could add to the tension and the drama that we are going to witness. Dobey has probably offered more given that he was a winner in Rotterdam four weeks ago but the eyes will tell us that Cross is playing the better of the two and the numbers would support that as well. His tournament average of 98.32 is actually the third highest in the competition whereas the 95.74 of Dobey is the lowest of the eight men involved. The Dobey finishing is always a concern for me though and that could be the overall difference here. I’m a little surprised that Cross is the outsider here given that he has played the better stuff and is higher in the table. I’ll get on Voltage in this one.
Luke Littler vs Luke Humphries
The last of the quarter finals is probably the one which will get the biggest billing as the top two in the world and soon to be World Cup partners Luke Littler and Luke Humphries battle it out for the second time in as many weeks.
The pair met in the final in Leeds last week and they will open their night against each other here with really only bragging rights and the psychological effect in play here. There is every chance that these two will play the title match at the o2 in a couple of weeks so they have the opportunity to lay a bit of a marker down here. I’m still not convinced that Littler isn’t just going through the motions at the minute. He has only reached the 100 mark for his average twice in the last seven Premier League matches which when he is averaging 102.40 for the tournament tells us that his intensity has dipped. Humphries got the win over Littler in that final a week ago which will give him confidence here and a win in this match would give the world number one the chance of securing top spot in the table next week. This could either be brilliant with both elevating each other to the top level or ordinary as both are playing out time in the regular season. Either way, I’m happy to sit and watch rather than invest in it.
Night 15 Betting
We are at the stage of the season where I am a little more reluctant to get involved in the nightly winner market, largely because we are having to guess the motivation of some of the players and while the £10,000 carrot for winning the night helps a little bit, this is the 15th week of touring the country and we are likely to have some jaded players, who have all earned a decent amount in recent times that even the £10k might not ensure motivation.
I do feel I’m inclined to get involved though because the main two face off in the quarter final which offers up value in the field and in the other half of the draw I like the 11/2 on Gerwyn Price. Price has already won three nights this season, the same as Humphries, and he looks good to go well again. He has Stephen Bunting in the quarter final where he is an 8/11 favourite and then he’ll meet either Michael van Gerwen or Nathan Aspinall, both of whom are out of form and for whom the quarter final largely is their final this week so they’ll be putting their all into that. At the prices, not having to play either Luke until the final, Price feels the value to me.
Tips
Back N.Aspinall to beat M.van Gerwen for a 3/10 stake at 2.30 with William Hill
Back R.Cross to beat C.Dobey for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
Back them here:
Back G.Price to win Night 15 (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with Betway (1/3 1-2)
