The Premier League Darts roadshow heads into Wales this week when Cardiff is the venue for night seven of the campaign with another £10,000 on the line for the eight players, but also equally as valuable league points.
Gerwyn Price will be the most popular man on the stage on Thursday evening but the draw has panned out nicely and we should see plenty of great darts thrown across the course of what feels like an important night.
Chris Dobey vs Stephen Bunting
One of the reasons why it is a big night on Thursday is because the bottom two meet in the opening quarter final when Chris Dobey takes on Stephen Bunting in a match where both simply have to win if they are going to be relevant in this campaign.
Bunting is yet to win a match in the Premier League this term and already finds himself 10 points adrift of the top four and with him guaranteed to face one of the Lukes in the quarter final next week barring a weird run of results in Cardiff, Bunting simply has to get off the mark here else he’ll just be playing out time in the second half of the campaign. Dobey is in a better place than Bunting in the league table but his three points all came on the opening night of the competition so he has also lost his last six matches in this campaign. Both men skipped the Players Championship events earlier in the week, presumably to ensure they are fully fit to go here, so this is a big game. The odds suggest there isn’t much between these two and that probably is the case. The early money has been for Bunting in this one and I suspect that is because much has been made of his losing averages, where despite being winless so far, his tournament average is up at 98.79 so he is playing well. Dobey is at 96.81 though so although he hasn’t caught the eye in defeat as often, he is going nicely too. The better way to play this could be over 9.5 legs. Both men know what this one means to their season and will be all at it and there might not be too much separating them when the final double is landed.
Luke Humphries vs Michael van Gerwen
The pick of the quarter finals on paper is the second one onto the stage as the world number one Luke Humphries goes up against an inconsistent but still highly capable Michael van Gerwen for a spot in the Cardiff semi-finals.
Humphries was another who skipped the Players Championship events in midweek while van Gerwen played in the first of them, losing in the first round, which won’t have done much for his confidence. Matches between these two are generally tight though which will give van Gerwen a little bit of belief but he is probably going to need to raise his game to the 100 average, something he hasn’t gone in the Premier League since week two of the competition. Humphries has been in cruise control at times in this campaign but he was overtaken at the top last week when he went down to Luke Littler so he’ll be out for revenge here. Humphries is the favourite with the bookmakers but he has only won one quarter final comfortably this season which puts me off taking a handicap on him but I don’t really fancy MVG here so I’ll leave this one alone.
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Luke Littler vs Nathan Aspinall
The penultimate quarter-final in Cardiff will be a repeat of the final from Brighton two weeks ago when Luke Littler goes up against his stablemate Nathan Aspinall in what will be their third meeting in the Premier League this term overall.
Littler rose to the top much of the table with a run to the final in Nottingham last week and he will be looking to use being in the favourable side of the draw to extend his lead at the top against a man who has offered little in the way of a challenge in their recent meetings. Littler won that final a fortnight ago 6-3 and the week before Littler won a semi-final between the two 6-2 and you would wager on the outcome being something similar here. My way in on Littler matches recently has been to take his opponent to cover his three dart average but no bookmakers are offering that at the time of writing so in what I foresee as being a comfortable Littler win, I’m happy to skip this one.
Gerwyn Price vs Rob Cross
We have to wait until the last of the quarter finals for the home favourite Gerwyn Price to take to the stage in Cardiff and when he does so he will face off against Rob Cross for a shot at either Littler or Aspinall in the last four.
Price won in Nottingham last week and although he has Littler in his half of the draw he won’t be against that necessarily because he will know he has a wonderful record against the world champion, one he extended when he beat Littler in the final seven days ago. Cross has been in decent touch himself in recent times. It is only a fortnight ago that he was firing in a nine dart leg and even in defeat to Littler last week he averaged 103.88 so Cross isn’t going to go down lightly. You just wonder if this is the match that the crowd will get involved in and skew things in the favour of Price. The Welshman has a decent recent record on home soil but he is the odds on favourite in a match where the odds feel about right so I would rather take Price to win the night for reasons I will put below rather than to put too much on him winning a game between two form horses.
Night 7 Betting
This is one of those nights where two of the so called big three meet in one of the quarter finals which earlier in the competition would have opened things up a little and led to the one not involved in that half of the draw being a good thing on the evening but the way the draw has panned out overall here I’m not convinced that is the case, purely because Luke Littler has such an ordinary record against Gerwyn Price should the two meet in the second semi-final.
Rob Cross will certainly have something to say about that match from taking place but should it be the semi-final, Price has won the last six meetings against the world champion and he is sure to have the crowd on his side here. You can definitely pick holes in the overall record of Gerwyn Price at this competition through the years but he has played much better this term, already winning two of the nights, and he has won and made the final in the last two seasons in this building. At 15/2 he feels like the value on the night.
Tips
Back C.Dobey vs S.Bunting – Over 9.5 legs for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
Back it here:
Back G.Price to win Night 7 (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 with Spreadex (1/3 1-2)
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