Premier League Top Goalscorer Betting Preview – Value lies away from Aguero this season

One of the favourite ante-post markets for punters is on the Top Goalscorer market for the respective divisions and for once the race for the Golden Boot in the Premier League looks a highly competitive one.

Sergio Aguero outscored the rest of the division by five goals last season and he is the 3/1 favourite to regain his Golden Boot this season but the challengers looking to usurp him look bigger in number this year and in some cases higher in quality.

Aguero plays in a Man City side who will score a lot of goals but with the Champions League clearly the big fish for City it could be that their Argentine forward gets rested around the big games especially as he hasn’t really had a break having played in the Copa America over the summer.

Harry Kane was Aguero’s closest pursuer last year and he is set for another big season but often strikers are found out in their second season at this level and it has to be a concern that teams will have worked out how to play against him so I’ll leave him alone too.

Diego Costa is the second favourite in this market but he’s far too flimsy and fragile for me to get involved with him. If Chelsea do get ahead in the Premier League then he might sit certain matches out to be fresh for the bigger matches like Champions League games.

Wayne Rooney is a shortening third favourite in the market but I would be concerned that he plays in midfield too much. Admittedly United have signed midfield reinforcements but few of them have been in attacking areas so Rooney may still be employed there from time to time. He is also a candidate for a few suspensions too which doesn’t help.

Alexis Sanchez, Olivier Giroud and Daniel Sturridge should all be mentioned but Sanchez played in the Copa America and might start the season slowly while Giroud is starting to look overrated and Sturridge keeps picking up injuries so I’m not going near him either. There are two men I do like though.

My main bet in this market is the new Liverpool forward Christian Benteke. The former Aston Villa striker missed some of last season and played in an awful side but still bagged 13 goals and in 2012-13 he scored 19 goals in a season only Robin van Persie, Gareth Bale and Luis Suarez outscored him in.

Benteke is in a side who create a lot more chances this season and he looks fit to begin the campaign which are both positives. There were times last season when Liverpool were crying out for someone to finish the chances they created. He is that man and as long as the supply line keeps coming, which is should do with the attacking talent there, then Benteke can go very well.

An outside pick is Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson. He scored loads of goals in the Championship last season and he has a style that Premier League defences don’t find easy to cope with. He’s direct, powerful and pacey and most importantly he knows where the back of the net is. Bournemouth may not survive in this league but Wilson definitely will and there are worse 80/1 shots out there than he.

Back C.Benteke Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)

Back C.Wilson Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-4)

1 Comment on "Premier League Top Goalscorer Betting Preview – Value lies away from Aguero this season"

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