Much later in the year than we are used to, the Qatar Masters will be played this week on the DP World Tour and it will have plenty of attention on it with it being the only event being played out across the majors tours.
Ewen Ferguson won’t mind that as he will be the man looking to defend the title that he won here last year but he’ll be doing so against a decent field which has a very competitive look about it as we close in on the playoffs.
Recent Winners
2022 – Ewen Ferguson
2021 – Antoine Rozner
2020 – Jorge Campillo
2019 – Justin Harding
2018 – Eddie Pepperell
2017 – Jeunghun Wang
2016 – Branden Grace
2015 – Branden Grace
2014 – Sergio Garcia
2013 – Chris Wood
The Course
We are back at the wonderful Doha Golf Club for a second time after a couple of years away. The 7,400 yard par 72 track has been a feature of this tournament throughout its history. It sounds long on paper but with the dry air we know the ball flies further so it isn’t a long track by any means. The way it has been created, with many doglegs and small greens means there isn’t a lot of joy in overcoming it with power.
Given the firmness of the tracks out in this part of the world the course needs to be played from the fairways for the best control into the greens. A good putter is always needed in this part of the world, as is comfort in the wind because this is an exposed track like we saw in the desert events earlier in the year so don’t have those who don’t have a good record in the wind high up on your shortlist. Good iron players who flight the ball low and putt well are the ones to be on here.
The Field
We have a bunch of players inside the top 100 in the world teeing it up this week but none of them are in the top 50. The Ryder Cup winner Robert MacIntyre is the highest ranked player in the field while Aaron Rai, Jordan Smith and Alexander Bjork come next. The other top 100 players are Pablo Larrazabal, Rasmus Hojgaard, Thorbjorn Olesen, Ryo Hisatsune, Matt Wallace, Adrian Otaegui, Thriston Lawrence and Yannik Paul.
This is the final regular event of the season so there will be plenty of nerves around for those who have not secured playing rights for next season along with those who will be looking to qualify for the final two events and potentially those looking for an automatic PGA Tour card for next term. In terms of staying on tour, recognisable names such as Marc Warren, Scott Jamieson, Jeunghun Wang, Alex Levy, Wilco Nienaber and Soren Kjeldsen need big weeks.
Market Leaders
Thorbjorn Olesen is the 20/1 favourite this week which shows just how competitive this tournament is likely to be. The Dane has a couple of top three finishes around here but surprisingly he hasn’t got his hands on this title yet. He arrives in Doha off the back of three successive top 20 finishes in the last three events he has completed and is known to be comfortable in the wind and in the desert. He feels a decent market leader but this is a wide open event.
Jordan Smith comes next in the market at 22/1 on the best prices. He is a ball striking machine which is often one of the keys to success around here. He was sixth here in his first start but has only cracked the top 20 once in five more outings and that was when this course wasn’t in use for the tournament. That is a bit of a concern but he was second at the Open de France recently and if his putter gets going it wouldn’t be a surprise if he runs well but he isn’t high up on my shortlist.
Alexander Bjork, Aaron Rai and Rasmus Hojgaard are all 25/1 on the best prices to win this tournament. Bjork regularly contends but this track might be too long for him whereas Rai has an ordinary record around here, although he was second at the BMW PGA Championship not too long ago. Hojgaard has had no poor showings here but he is in decent form so you would imagine he is primed to give his best effort yet.
Robert MacIntyre is the only other player shorter than 30/1 in the field this week. The Ryder Cup winner can be taken at 28/1 on the best prices. He is another whose record here isn’t as good as you would expect it to be and in truth his form since the Ryder Cup has been nothing to write home about but he is good in the wind, drives it nicely and goes after greens so you would expect him to be there or thereabouts if he puts four rounds together.
Main Bets
Richard Mansell comes into this tournament in form as good as anyone after a couple of top 10 finishes in Spain over the last couple of weeks and a few weeks prior to that he was right there in the Open de France before an ordinary final round cost him dearly there. He has shown in enough tournaments that he is comfortable in the wind and he is generally pretty solid from tee to green. If there is a negative it is that he is on debut here but three of the last four Doha winners were debutants so if he can put four rounds together here I think he’s a decent price.
I also expect big things from Alex Fitzpatrick both this week and certainly over the next year or two. He saw his brother and mother win their respective events at the Dunhill Links at the beginning of the month and he’ll be keen to get his own hands on silverware, particularly after going so close in Northern Ireland where he survived the tricky conditions. He also went well in Switzerland which shows he is hitting the ball nicely and I fancy conditions here to suit him very well. He feels a big price even as a debutant.
Outsiders
From debutants as main bets I’m going with someone who has a wonderful record around here for the first of my outsider bets as Mike Lorenzo-Vera gets the nod. He has three top 10 finishes around here and his last 12 rounds have all been under par. He had a bit of a quiet run on the DP World Tour since May but he has come good again in Spain recently with a top 10 at the Open de Espana and while he was T26 last week the middle round of the three saw him go round in 65 slaps so he is clearly hitting it well and now he returns to a track he goes well at he is an obvious each way punt.
The final punt for me this week is Marc Warren, a player who sits on the bubble for keeping his playing rights so he is going to need to make the cut as a bare minimum here to avoid having to battle at tour school to keep his card. He has finished second around here in the past which makes me confident he can go well and we know he is more than comfortable in exposed conditions. There are signs he is hitting the ball ok as well as he flew round in 64 shots at Kingsbarns at the Dunhill Links a few weeks ago so some form is in there and I’ll pay to see if the situation he is in brings out the desired result with his back against the wall.
Tips
Back R.Mansell to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Fitzpatrick to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back M.Lorenzo-Vera to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Warren to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
