The Desert Swing continues on the European Tour this week as the golf roadshow moves from Abu Dhabi over to Qatar for a Wednesday start in the Qatar Masters.
Of the three Middle-East events on the Tour which make up the Desert Swing this one is often the weakest field of the lot and that is very much the case this year. There is no Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson or Rickie Fowler this week sadly.
There is still a few decent names teeing it up this week and one of them is the defending champion Branden Grace. The South African is an 8/1 favourite to retain the title here.
Doha Golf Club is the venue this week as it has been since the tournament first came on the scene in 1998. It is a par 72 which measures 7,400 yards but as with last week the ball will fly a bit further so it doesn’t play as long as that.
The course is exposed so the wind can have a big bearing on the tournament and with water in play on a number of holes there can be some carnage around the course. In terms of the bare statistics there isn’t a strict requirement for accuracy so length is probably better but greens in regulation is a big thing. You need someone who can play in the wind too.
Grace is the favourite slightly ahead of Sergio Garcia who is a 9/1 shot here. Thomas Pieters comes next at 16/1. Louis Oosthuizen is 22/1 with Matthew Fitzpatrick at 25/1 and it is 28/1 bar that quintet so there is plenty of value to be had this week.
With greens in regulation a big thing this week I’m happy to make Alejandro Canizares my first pick. It is very rare he doesn’t gobble up the greens in the right number with his wonderful iron play and his putting is usually good enough too.
Canizares went very well in Abu Dhabi last week where he finished in a tie for fifth and had good putting stats. That bodes well for him this week and on a course where his game should be better suited and where he has finished inside the top 10 in each of the last two years. He looks a solid punt to start us off.
If Canizares was a solid punt Kiradech Aphibarnrat could be a special one. I can’t believe he is 50/1 in this tournament. When it comes to playing in the wind we know the Thai can definitely do that given that he won the Paul Lawrie Matchplay on a links course and followed it up with a fourth in the Dunhill Links too.
Aphibarnrat is long off the tee and proficient with the irons and as I keep saying his putting is massively underrated. I did wonder if he was fit last week after a shoulder problem in the EurAsia Cup but if he did have any issues he never showed them. You’d have thought he would have pulled out if he had any lingering injury so I’m confident he is fit and if he is he should be in the mix this week.
Thomas Bjorn is a former winner around here and he comes into this week with good momentum behind him after a solid effort in Abu Dhabi last week in a field which in truth might have been too hot for him at this stage of his career.
He was the best putter in the field last week which when you consider the strength of the field can’t be underestimated and while he may not be the longest hitter in the field his wedges and irons are usually so good he makes up for a lack of length with quality with those in his hand. We know he’s a specialist when the wind blows so I’m happy to take the Great Dane this week.
My last pick is a man who is very erratic at the best of times and that is Thorbjorn Olesen. Olesen won the Dunhill Links last year so if we needed confirmation that he can play in the wind there it is but we didn’t need confirmation of that. He has always looked at home on wide open exposed courses such as this one.
Olesen was third here in 2014 so we know he can play this golf course when he’s on song and after winning just a few months ago he should still be carrying plenty of confidence into this week. He finished poorly last week but the delays might have had something to do with that. I think Olesen is worth chancing here given his length and comfort in the wind.
Back A.Canizares to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1/5)
Back T.Bjorn to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back T.Olesen to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-5)
Hi Kev
A nice run for some of your selections in America at the weekend. Lovemark must have been frustrating to watch,
On Aphibarnrat. Many times this guy would win if it was for the most birdies in the tournament, but he may also win the most bogeys. Have you any thoughts on why he goes so quickly from birdie to bogey without consolidating with par play?
Yeah Lovemark was a tough ending especially as he only shared a place in the end.
Aphibarnrat is an aggressive player. Sometimes too aggressive for his own good but when he’s bang on or has the right course such as this week he usually maintains a proper challenge. He’s still fairly new to the European Tour though and as time goes on and he matures/develops I’m sure he’ll start to play the ‘right’ approach.