With The Open fading into the memory and the USPGA looming on the horizon the race to make the FedEx Cup playoffs is hotting up. In four weeks time only the top 125 players in the points list will progress to the playoffs so this week’s Quicken Loans National is a big week for so many players.
It isn’t just the playoffs that is getting the attention of those outside the top 125, the majority of them have just three tournaments remaining to secure their Tour card for next season so this is a nervy time for so many players.
The Quicken Loans National, formerly the AT&T National, used to be one of the top events on the PGA Tour but a schedule change which sees it precede the next WGC event and the USPGA has given us a much weaker field than we are used to. Even the appearance of Tiger Woods hasn’t elevated the profile of the event as much as it might have done.
The strength of the field isn’t the only change this week. Congressional is only hosting the tournament on even years so we head to a new course this week. This is a big week for the tournament as it needs to establish a regular slot but with the Olympics next year keeping this week is unlikely to be good news.
Justin Rose won the tournament last year and he returns to defend this year. He will defend the title on a different course as we move to the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Virginia this week.
Jones has gone on record as saying this is his finest creation and those appearing this week will hope it plays more smoothly than Chambers Bay, the last time a high profile tournament was played on a Trent Jones course.
The course is a par 71 which plays 7,385 yards at its longest. This is the first time the place will have hosted a Tour event but it did host the Presidents Cup in the early stages of that competition so some members of the field will have played it before but not many.
On the face of it the course favours those who can get it out there. The fairways are protected as much as they can be by bunkers but the longer hitters can fly the danger and the landing areas are wide enough to entice them into doing that. The biggest challenge on this course appears to be hitting the greens. They are small and with Lake Manassas running along a number of holes accuracy into them is vital. The longer hitters will have shorter irons making them easier to find.
Justin Rose heads the market this week but with the field being as weak as it is there are only three men in the outright betting shorter than 30/1. Rose is one at 9/1 with Rickie Fowler (11/1) and Jimmy Walker (18/1) the others. Although Fowler sets up well for this course with two huge weeks coming up I’m happy to swerve them both.
I’m after either a long hitting player or someone who has a good all round game. Essentially I’m after distance from the tee so there is one player who stands out this week.
Tony Finau finished the Canadian Open last week with a seven under 65 which sent him to his 8th top 25 finish in his last nine starts. The only exception in that run was the John Deere Classic when he missed the cut on the number so the web.com tour graduate arrives in Virginia in excellent form.
As you would expect for a long hitter Finau is a birdie machine and there are a number of holes where his length will set up birdie chances around this course. The key will come with the short stick but you don’t shoot 65s around Glen Abbey without getting a good roll on the ball so this course should set up well for the in form American to go very close to a first win at this level.
Another form horse is Will Wilcox and he’s my second pick this week. He rested up last week after sustaining a wrist niggle in his runner up finish in the Barbasol the week before but he’s teeing it up here so I’ll take him on his word that the issue has settled down.
Wilcox is statting well this season. He leads the all-around ranking on the Tour this season, sits fifth in total driving and sixth in GIRs. With most of the greens on this course guarded by bunkers the fact he leads the sand save percentage is no bad thing either. He’s inside the top 20 in proximity to the hole as well and with top 10s in his last two tournaments including a second placed finish last time out he’s playing well enough to go very close again this week.
Back T.Finau to win Quicken Loans National (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back W.Wilcox to win Quicken Loans National (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 61.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
