After the stresses and the strains of the opening major of the year there is an air of normality about the PGA Tour this week as the roadshow rolls into Hilton Head Island in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage.
A week after The Masters the tournament could be forgiven for struggling to attract the top names but that isn’t the case as the world number one is in the field along with plenty more star players as the race for the Olympics and the FedEx Cup continues at a pace.
Recent winners
2015 – Jim Furyk
2014 – Matt Kuchar
2013 – Graeme McDowell
2012 – Carl Pettersson
2011 – Brandt Snedeker
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Brian Gay
2008 – Boo Weekley
2007 – Boo Weekley
2006 – Aaron Baddeley
Course
Harbour Town Golf Links is the venue for the tournament this week. The course plays to a par of 71 and measures 7,099 yards so it isn’t overly long. Since it last staged this event last year the course has undergone a renovation with Bermudagrass coming into the place. The four holes most affected in the redesign are the 2nd and the stretch between 15 and 17.
If you look at the past winners here the course profile is pretty obvious. We’re not necessarily looking for someone who is the longest off the tee but finding the fairway is crucial and then it becomes a second shot course. The greens aren’t big so are difficult to find but if you do find them they are generally ok to putt on given their lack of size.
This is an island though and with that brings the winds which are set to play a significant role in the tournament again this year. All things being equal the winner will be proficient from tee to green and scramble well.
Market leaders
Jason Day is the favourite this week and he will tee off as a 6/1 favourite which is plenty short enough especially with length no real advantage this week. Former winner Brandt Snedeker is the second favourite at 18/1, the same price as Paul Casey who had a good Masters last week.
Matt Kuchar is another former champion in the field and he is 22/1 to win this week which might be a little short as he continues to find his top form. Kevin Kisner, Zach Johnson and Matthew Fitzpatrick are all 25/1 with it being 40/1 bar those named.
Main bets
There is no mystery in my main bets this week. The first comes with The Open champion Zach Johnson. By virtue of him winning that tournament we know he is competent in the wind and now that he has had time to adjust to the new tools in the bag we can expect the twice major champion to deliver the goods again for the rest of the year.
Zach missed the cut last week but I don’t so much mind that because the course is way too long for him and for the first round at least he had to put up with Rickie Fowler hacking the place up. This is much more up his street length wise and a GIR machine who holes putts is perfect for this track. Off the back of a top five at Bay Hill and a good run in the Match Play I’m happy to be with Zach this week.
My second main pick is a player I’ve made no secret of being a huge fan of and that is Matthew Fitzpatrick. He has already won for me since I’ve been going solo with my site and blog before that on a track not too dissimilar to this one.
We know Fitzpatrick will handle the wind and we also know he is a tee to green animal. He isn’t weak by any means in the scrambling statistics and we saw on firm and large greens last week that he is more than competent with the short stick.
There is an argument to be made as to whether there is much value in the Sheffield man this week but he’ll be inspired by Danny Willett’s win last week and he tweeted at the beginning of the week that he was back at his ‘favourite course in the entire world’ this week. Off the back of a really solid run at The Masters I’m all aboard the Fitzpatrick train here.
I’m also going to give Graeme McDowell another go this week. He’s another who has already won for me this season and as a past champion around here he is worth a go again. McDowell missed the cut last week but that doesn’t bother me too much because he has never gone well at Augusta. If anything his under par opening round could be seen as a positive.
This track sets up much better for McDowell. He is solid from tee to green and sits tied 12th in proximity to the hole on Tour this year. With his putter, which is starting to work and should work well on these greens, he has all the game to go well here again. We know he is competent in the wind and I’m expecting another big run from the Northern Irishman this week.
Outsiders
I’ll take a couple at big prices too as I often do. This week I’ll take a couple of statistical picks in the form of KJ Choi and Jerry Kelly.
Choi has a couple of top five finishes this season, both of them on tough tracks and he was inside the top 20 in a much stronger field than this in the Phoenix Open. Choi sits in the top 20 for proximity to the pin on the PGA Tour this year which should be a big thing this week and if he misses the greens he sits fourth in scrambling. If he keeps the ball in play he’s entitled to go well here.
Jerry Kelly has three top 10 finishes around this course and is playing as well this season as he has done in a while. That might not be reflected in results but he’s been keeping some pretty illustrious company.
Statistics wise the season is very strong for him though. He is fourth in driving accuracy, just inside the top 20 for proximity to the pin and he is second in scrambling on the PGA Tour this season. All of those credentials are perfect for around here so if he holes some putts he has the right to go very close again.
Tips
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back KJ.Choi to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back Z.Johnson to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-6)
Back G.McDowell to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-6)
Back them here:
Back J.Kelly to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-6)
