It is the penultimate week of the PGA Tour regular season with the action heading to Detroit for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, a tournament where those who are not yet in the top 125 of the FedExCup rankings will be eager for a big week to get in that section, while those who are there will be bidding to stay there.
Cameron Davis made a major breakthrough in his career when he took this tournament down last year and he’ll be looking to keep the trophy this week but some really good players will be out to stop that from happening.
Recent Winners
2021 – Cameron Davis
2020 – Bryson DeChambeau
2019 – Nate Lashley
The Course
We are back at the Detroit Golf Club this week where the same composite course as last year is being used. The course being used is a par 72 which measures 7,370 yards which still isn’t overly long by modern standards. It is designed by Donald Ross and most of his courses rely on accuracy into tight greens and good putting techniques on greens which have plenty of slopes on them. There isn’t usually an emphasis off the tee although Cameron Davis and Bryson DeChambeau winning the last two years highlights the advantage length has around here.
All things being equal though, this is going to turn into a shootout so basically we are looking for players to give themselves a lot of chances on the greens and those who are putting well enough to convert them. The weather isn’t expected to be an issue this week and although there is talk of the rough being up a bit these greens are bigger than we would usually find to be the average on the PGA Tour so putting is going to be key.
The Field
The field in Minnesota last week was a little disappointing but that accusation certainly can’t be levelled at the one in Detroit this week where the PGA Tour will want to put on a good show as it goes up against the LIV Tour once again. Patrick Cantlay makes his debut in the tournament this year while the winner last week, Tony Finau, will go in search of a second title in quick succession. They will both need to beat the defending champion Cameron Davis though.
Davis won his first PGA Tour title here last year and two men who will be aiming to do the same thing this time around are Will Zalatoris and Cameron Young, both of whom have excelled in the biggest tournaments in the game this year. Adam Scott and Max Homa are no strangers to winning titles and they both tee it up here, as do Keegan Bradley, Kevin Kisner, Davis Riley, Sahith Theegala, Adam Hadwin and Cameron Tringale among others.
Market Leaders
Patrick Cantlay is on debut this week but he comes in here in pretty good form having finished in the top 10 at both the Scottish Open and The Open and having had last week off to get back to his usual time zone he should be nicely refreshed for a tilt at this title. It will be interesting to see if a lack of course knowledge counts against him but if it doesn’t then the profile of the 11/1 shot certainly fits this course. He isn’t a bomber but he’s long enough and delivers on a number of birdie chances. He’s a likely winner but maybe a tad skinny.
Tony Finau and Will Zalatoris are both 16/1 shots to win the title this week. It is very rare for a player to win in consecutive weeks so that is a negative on Finau, although to be fair everyone fell over themselves last week so how much it would have taken out of him is open to debate. Zalatoris has been knocking on the door of winning a tournament for most of the last 12 months but we’re at the stage where I think he’s too short at 16/1 until it opens.
Cameron Young arguably should have won The Open from the position he put himself in after the opening 18 holes but he could only run on to finish second when he had the best seat in the house of the final round masterclass Cameron Smith put together. Young is also still searching for a first win so at 18/1 he’s very tight on the prices but I do have a hunch that he’ll win before Zalatoris. The fact he hasn’t had a competitive spin around here though makes me think it might not come this week.
Max Homa is the only other player who is shorter than 30/1 in the betting. He comes in at 25/1 and having won twice this season already we certainly know he won’t be baulking when the winning line approaches. Homa missed the cut at The Open but I won’t hold that against him. More of a concern is how he’s only put two middle of the road displays together here with T42 and T25 outcomes. His wins have generally come on tracks with a bit of toughness to them rather than low scoring shootouts like this could be.
Main Bets
It is bombs away for me this week with the first of two main bets coming in the form of Adam Scott. Scott isn’t traditionally a bomber but he can keep up with most off the tee and with his putting having come on hugely over the last 12 months I think this might be the opportunity to get on him before too many of the bigger guns are back in action. Scott is pretty slightly raced in recent times having played the US Open and The Open as his last two tournaments but he was T14 and T15 there and at this stage of a long PGA Tour season freshness is definitely not a negative. Three times in his last eight measured starts Scott has been in the top 10 for strokes gained putting and with the quality of his long game known worldwide he could be the one to beat this week.
Taylor Pendrith is the other big hitter I like this week. I’ve been waiting for the opportunity to get on him but waited a little since he returned from injury but in the two weeks he has been out since then he went 13-11 at the Barbasol Championship and the Barracuda Championship and on a track that suits the bigger hitters this is the week to get on him. Pendrith smokes it many a mile off the tee and has been hitting a lot of greens since his return. He has a decent putting average in those two weeks as well so if it continues to all come together, which after so long out of the game you would imagine it naturally will, then he could be a big price here.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three relatively big hitting outsiders too with the first of those being Wyndham Clark, a player who is incredibly long off the tee but isn’t too shabby when it comes to the short stick. Back at the Canadian Open he gained almost 11 shots on the field with the short stick and if he can putt like that here he should be right in the mix. He doesn’t always putt well but when he does his results are incredibly good. He has only played this event once but he was T17 three years ago on his only outing. I think he has improved as a player since then so the omens are good that he’ll outrun his price.
Chesson Hadley is putting together a nice body of work in recent times and he is another who I think can go well this week. Since the Travelers Championship he has gone 5-10-68-31-10 and he would have been even closer than T10 last week with a better final round. He isn’t someone who usually baulks on Sunday so that must just have been a freak occurrence. Hadley has been in the top 10 in the strokes gained putting department in three of his last eight starts and gained more than nine shots with the short stick at TPC Sawgrass earlier in the season. With his length and long game going well right now there is no reason why the good form of Hadley can’t continue here.
The last bet I like is Vincent Whaley, a player who on four occasions in his last 10 starts has finished in the top four for putting for that particular week, gaining decent numbers on the greens. He has plenty of length off the tee so he should be able to get the ball out there and as we’ve seen with this tournament in the past those who go into these greens with lesser clubs can get sufficient control on the greens to set up better chances. Whaley was fifth at the Barbasol a couple of starts again and has three other top 30 finishes in his last 12 starts. If that putter can stay hot he could go very well here.
Tips
Back A.Scott to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back T.Pendrith to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/5/1-10)
Back him here:
Back W.Clark to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Hadley to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back V.Whaley to win Rocket Mortgage Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
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Hi Kev, unlucky with Pendrith also David Law, however nice place money. Adam Scott’s 78 on Saturday is mystifying. An average round on that course and he would have been a player come Sunday afternoon. Maybe he had a barney with the missus Sat morning!