The final one day match of the domestic county season is played on Saturday when Lord’s hosts Surrey and Warwickshire in the Royal London One Day Cup final. Surrey were the losing finalists in this competition last year and will have a point to prove while Warwickshire are looking to make up for losing in the final the year before.
We have international cricketers aplenty on both sides which should add to the quality of the occasion and make this the cracking final this competition has deserved for the excellent cricket it has displayed at times.
Surrey go into this match off the back of a hard four day loss up at Durham but they weren’t playing for anything in that game so we can let what is a relatively young side off. Surrey have largely relied on their bowlers to get the job done in this campaign and in mid-September with an early start you would think that core will be needed again.
That said the London side do have two of the best players in the country in their top three so they have runs in them if Jason Roy and/or Kumar Sangakkara deliver their best. Sangakkara played one of the truly great knocks in the quarter final to keep Surrey alive in this competition and his experience and class could be huge.
Warwickshire are definitely a side who have relied on their bowling attack this season. The variety and the quality in their attack has proved to be the difference on so many previous occasions and they will hope that the bowlers have one more good showing in them to make up for the 2014 disappointment.
Warwickshire will be well rested having not had a Championship game in midweek and if this is a tight final then that could be significant. In Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott, Warwickshire also have a couple of classy batsmen who can put up the match winning innings to get their side over the line so they will be confident heading into this final.
Surrey have Jason Roy available for this final which will be a massive boost. He looks in the form of his life at the minute and nearly made a pair of centuries against a top notch Durham attack in the Championship in midweek.
Warwickshire will be able to call upon the all-round skills of Chris Woakes for this final which is important for them too so both sides will be heading into this final with a full strength side which is what we want to see.
I believe this final is too close to call and the odds suggest that. It will come down to fine margins either way. If I had to pick one of the sides I would go with Surrey but that isn’t without a huge amount of confidence.
One thing I am more confident about is Surrey to lead through the first 15 overs. These two sides play the game in different ways as I’ve spoken about in the past. Warwickshire look to set a platform up top for a launch in the later part of their innings while Surrey get after the bowlers from the off and don’t ever really slow down.
If Jason Roy bats any significant period of time in this final then I don’t see how Surrey don’t lead after 15 overs but even if he doesn’t Steven Davies and Kumar Sangakkara are free scoring. Warwickshire don’t really have that. There isn’t much between the opening attacks of either side so the difference will be the approaches which should see Surrey leading after 15 overs.
The other bet I like is the performance of Sam Curran. The line is at 38.5 which looks far too low to me. He comes into the match off the back of seven wickets in an innings and a 50 with the bat in the Championship and is one of the best new ball bowlers in the game at the minute.
Curran covered this performance without a wicket in the final 12 months ago and he went past it in the quarter final this year too. He missed out by 0.5pts in the semi-final but the improvement in form he has shown since then makes me confident he’ll cover it in this final.
WON – Back Surrey Highest 1st 15 Overs for a 4/10 stake at 1.90 with Unibet
Back them here:
Back S.Curran’s Performance – Over 38.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back him here: