Surrey are already in the Royal London One Day Cup final and on Monday we will find out the side who will oppose them at Lord’s next month. One thing we know already is that it will be either Warwickshire or Somerset as the two meet at Edgbaston. Both sides have good traditions in the one day game so it will be interesting to see who comes out on top here.
The Bears made it through courtesy of winning their last group match to finish second in the North Group and then they comfortably held off Essex in the quarter final to set up this last four clash. Warwickshire will go in search of a fourth Lord’s final in seven years when they take to the field but they’ve only won one of those finals which will be a source of motivation.
It has been their bowling which has got Warwickshire this far but when they need their batsmen to deliver they have two of the best one day batsmen in the country for literally any situation in Jonathan Trott and Ian Bell while around them they have exciting youngsters and solid all-rounders.
At the start of the season Somerset decided to go with a largely youthful squad in this competition with the likes of Chris Rogers and Marcus Trescothick saved for the four day stuff. It was a brave move but it is one that has definitely worked as Somerset topped their group and then had far too much for Worcestershire in the quarter final.
Overall their bowling has been their stronger suit although in the quarter final they showed just how good they can be with the bat. They will need to be good with the bat here though because there is no weak link to exploit in this Warwickshire bowling attack which might be the difference between their previous matches and this semi-final.
Warwickshire will be without Chris Woakes for this match. He was available for the quarter final but he is away with England for this semi. William Porterfield is away with Ireland too so it could be that Varun Chopra gets a start before he leaves for Essex.
Somerset are without Jamie Overton for the remainder of the season and they are without Mahela Jayawardena for this match too which is a real blow given the quality of his century in the quarter final. Johann Myburgh will come into the side from the quarter final win.
There have been four previous matches that have actually taken place on this ground this year and Warwickshire will be delighted the match is here because they have won all four of them and none of them have really been close either. Their margin of victories have been nine wickets, eight wickets, eight wickets and 70 runs so the Bears are pretty dominant in their own conditions.
Warwickshire’s first innings score of 283/7 in their quarter final against Essex is the only score over 260 on the ground this season although a couple of times Warwickshire would have gone past that if they had to. The boundaries read 54, 28, 48 and 44 from the previous matches so they don’t get peppered.
I can’t go against the Bears here. I’ve mentioned for the majority of the tournament how I see them as perfect for this format of the game and they show it time and again. Their formula never changes but that is because it works. If Jonathan Trott doesn’t get you Ian Bell usually does and that is a pretty potential combination.
That can be the difference too because Somerset’s batting always looks quite light but without Jayawardena and up against this bowling attack it could be exposed even more than usual. Warwickshire play this format and this ground well and I expect them to make another Lord’s final.
The other bet I like is Ateeq Javid and his performance. His line is 34.5 and in the last two matches in this tournament he has taken four wickets and two wickets. His off spin is likely to come to the fore more and more as the season concludes with the recent hot spell and the amount of cricket that has been played on this square in recent times.
Add to that the fact that he is a perfectly accomplished batsman who is likely to go a slot up the order with Woakes not around and of course like most modern cricketers he can field in key positions too so this line looks pretty low and I’ll take the overs on that.
WON – Back Warwickshire to beat Somerset for a 5/10 stake at 1.73 with Paddy Power
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Back A.Javid’s Performance – Over 34.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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