The European Tour leaves mainland Europe again this week and heads to Asia for the second staging of the Shenzhen International, the first of two back to back weeks in China.
After a tough slog around Valderrama last week the players will be pleased to get back to much easier surroundings where birdies are more the norm to bogeys. Despite a tough week in Spain a strong field has been put together for this week which should make for another good event.
Recent champions
2015 – Kiradech Aphibarnrat
The course
Genzon Golf Club is the venue this week. The course stages a European Tour event for the third successive year having held the China Open two years ago and this tournament last year.
The course itself is a par 72 which measures 7,145 yards so by modern standards it isn’t particularly long although the heavy atmosphere and moisture makes it play longer than its yardage at times.
In terms of how it plays it suits those who are longer off the tee. Driving accuracy is important but it helps if you are fairly long to get as close into the greens as you can be. The previous two winners here both had length off the tee and hit plenty of greens.
The field
Bubba Watson headlines the field in terms of world rankings and he starts out as the 6/1 favourite to win the event. Bubba played in this tournament last year and never really featured too prominently but the extra week between The Masters and this tournament this year should help him perform better.
Defending champion Aphibarnrat is next in the betting at 14/1 with last week’s runner up Joost Luiten next at 16/1. Ross Fisher is 20/1 on the best prices with Alexander Levy and Tommy Fleetwood both 25/1. It is 28/1 bar.
Main bets
My main bet this week comes in the form of a man who often plays well out in Asia in Ross Fisher. I’ve mentioned his record in previous Asian events and this course sets up brilliantly for the Englishman.
One of the strength of Fisher’s game is his driving ability. He is long and usually pretty straight with it and we know he is hitting the ball well by the fact he finished in such a lofty position in Spain last week on a really tricky track.
Fisher’s tee to green game was in magnificent order last week on a tough track. He was ninth for fairways hit, third for driving distance and fourth for greens in the right number. A repeat of that combined with the knowledge he putts much better in Asia should make Fisher very dangerous here.
The other bet I’m going to side with this week is Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood is still looking for a debut win on the European Tour but he seems to like it around this golf course so if his win is going to come anywhere it could well be here.
Apart from one dodgy round last week, and we certainly can’t hold that against him given the nature of the week, he would have been right in the mix in Spain but that should only have boosted his confidence to levels where he can go well here.
Fleetwood has finished third and second on this course in the last two years and given that he comes in here off the back of a strong showing in Spain I’m expecting another decent run from him in this tournament.
Outsiders
I’m also going with two outsiders this week. Both of them have length and while they might not be the most consistent or reliable necessarily that is of course factored in the price of both.
The first of those is Johan Carlsson. Carlsson was the second longest in the field off the tee in Spain last week. That was on his way to a tie for 14th place which was his fifth top 20 finish in his last six tournaments so he is clearly playing well.
In a number of those events the supporting cast have been of the highest quality and while there is quality in this field there isn’t as much of it in terms of depth so that should suit Carlsson. He’s playing well and should outperform his price here.
Alvaro Quiros remains another Spanish enigma but there have been a couple of signs that he is playing ok this season. He was in the top five in a very strong field in the Dubai Desert Classic and he made the cut and performed alright last week.
He finished third around this track in 2014 and closed out this tournament last year with a 63 so he has good memories around this course and players like Quiros can be horses for courses types. He’s a big price given the relative success he has had at this place.
Tips
Back R.Fisher to win Shenzhen International (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back T.Fleetwood to win Shenzhen International (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back J.Carlsson to win Shenzhen International (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back A.Quiros to win Shenzhen International (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
