The PGA Tour heads from Mississippi to the desert this week when the Shriners Children’s Open takes place out on Las Vegas as the final wraparound season across the pond continues at quite a pace.
Sungjae Im hit the jackpot in Vegas a year ago when he walked off with this title after two weeks after going well at the Presidents Cup he’ll be looking to make a successful defence of the title in Nevada this week.
Recent Winners
2021 – Sungjae Im
2020 – Martin Laird
2019 – Kevin Na
2018 – Bryson DeChambeau
2017 – Patrick Cantlay
2016 – Rod Pampling
2015 – Smylie Kaufman
2014 – Ben Martin
2013 – Webb Simpson
2012 – Ryan Moore
The Course
We are back at TPC Summerlin this week for what is always a popular tournament with those who like making birdies. The course is a par 71 and one of the easier of that par on the entire tour. It measures 7,255 yards but plays nothing like that yardage with the heat and altitude of Las Vegas. The rough is usually kept to a minimum here and the greens are enormous so it is very much a case of swing hard and make as many putts as you can.
There is no massive advantage in terms of length this week although it stands to reason with the rough down that the further you mow it off the tee the closer to the greens you’ll be. This will be a putting contest so players who hole lots of putts and who have shown some good recent form should be the ones to focus on. This isn’t really a week for the players who prefer the tougher courses.
The Field
There are four standout players in the field this week and they include the former FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay who is the real class act in the field. He is joined by three other players who were involved in the Presidents Cup a fortnight ago in the form of the defending champion Sungjae Im, the first winner of the new season in Max Homa and the popular young superstar who made a big impression at Quail Hollow in Tom Kim.
Six other members of that beaten Internationals side are also in the field here in Taylor Pendrith, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Davis, K-H Lee, Mito Pereira and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Other players who catch the eye in the field list this week include Aaron Wise, Matt Wallace, Emiliano Grillo, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Tom Hoge and Alex Noren. This is a competitive field with a few sprinkles of real star quality on top.
Market Leaders
Patrick Cantlay is a 7/1 favourite to win the tournament for a second time having landed the spoils in 2017. He has appeared here in three further stagings of this event and finished second twice and eighth on the other occasion, the latter with a poor round of 73 to conclude. Cantlay looked solid as ever at the Presidents Cup but this is his first appearance of the new season apart from his week at Quail Hollow. He is no better than a fair price and possibly on the skinny side so he isn’t for me.
Sungjae Im won this title a year ago and he is 12/1 to win it for a second year in succession. This will be Im’s first outing of the new season, which is unheard of for him because he rarely takes a week off, and although he went well at the Presidents Cup I’d have liked a normal strokeplay spin from him in the last six weeks if I was going to get involved at this price. Given that he doesn’t speak great English the demands on his time might not be that of a normal defending champion but he’s still a touch on the short side.
Max Homa is teeing it up for the second time this season with the first coming at the Fortinet Championship. He defended the title there and then ran hot at Quail Hollow winning four points for the American team in an excellent Presidents Cup appearance. The concern in backing him would be that he has missed his last four cuts here and only shot under par in one of his last seven rounds. He is a better player now but at 18/1 I’d like a little more course form to pull the trigger.
Aaron Wise and Tom Kim come next in the betting at 22/1. Kim had a brilliant Presidents Cup to continue a wonderful few months for the Korean after he broke his duck at the Wyndham Championship towards the end of last season. He is the sort of player who could easily get hot here and take a lot of beating but he’s on debut which can be a negative. Wise tees it up for the first time since the Tour Championship but he was T8 here last year.
Main Bets
Sporting superstars either make a name for themselves in Las Vegas or enhance their reputation there and there is no doubt to me that Tom Kim is a star waiting to happen. The last three months have shown us that and this course should be right in his wheelhouse. He is very good off the tee like all Asian players are but what may well set him out from the rest down the line is his touch and feel on and around the greens. Kim has the length to get at the gettable holes here and the touch and feel to get out of any trouble he should be in. This is his debut here but that didn’t stop him at the Wyndham and buoyed by the efforts he put in at the Presidents Cup I think he’s a good bet here.
I took Tom Hoge at the Fortinet Championship at the beginning of the season and he went well there but couldn’t quite find that standout day which would have turned his T12 into something more substantial. Given that his numbers throughout the bag were good that week I’ll take the Pebble Beach champion to have a better week here. Hoge has two top 15 finishes around this golf course so we know he can overcome it. He also has a 64 here in 2020 and if he has one or two of those up his sleeve this week then he is going to be right in the mix. Hoge emerged as one of the better players on the PGA Tour last season making it all the way to East Lake and he can begin his quest to back that up with a big run here.
Outsiders
Matthew NeSmith has a good record around this course and given that he is one of the more accurate from tee to green I will take a chance that he goes well here. Usually it is the putter that lets NeSmith down but that doesn’t appear to be the case on this course where in three starts he has finished 18-8-14 and never shot anything worse than 69 in the 12 rounds he has played here. NeSmith arrives here off the back of a top 10 in Mississippi last week where he was in the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee on a course which played a lot tougher than many were expecting. He was also in the top 20 on the greens there which might be more significant and finished the week with a sparkling 64 which should have him full of confidence heading here. I think he’s a very live outsider.
Joel Dahmen is my other bet this week. He had a very good week in Jackson at the Sanderson Farms Championship but just couldn’t put anything in the hole. That was unfortunate because nobody picks up more strokes on the field from tee to green with him second in fairways hit and eighth in greens in regulation. If he can just get the putter going then he could be a real danger here. He has a top 10 here and was T24 last year when he closed with a 64. That was the second 64 he has carded around here and with some excellent ball striking form behind him if he can come to the party with the putter he could easily go close this week.
Tips
Back T.Kim to win Shriners Children’s Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Hoge to win Shriners Children’s Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back M.NeSmith to win Shriners Children’s Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Dahmen to win Shriners Children’s Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
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Absolutely outstanding tipping Kev. I knew you were the GOATGT before but this was a sublime week. Brilliant. Hats of to the Messi of GT