The PGA Tour heads to Las Vegas this week for the Shriners Children’s Open, the latest tournament in the fall events which will go towards making up the tour card holders for next year and the fields for the bigger competitions.
Tom Kim reconfirmed himself as a major player in the game here last year when he won the title and the Korean star is in the field looking to make a successful defence of the crown. He will go up against a competitive field.
Recent Winners
2022 – Tom Kim
2021 – Sungjae Im
2020 – Martin Laird
2019 – Kevin Na
2018 – Bryson DeChambeau
2017 – Patrick Cantlay
2016 – Rod Pampling
2015 – Smylie Kaufman
2014 – Ben Martin
2013 – Webb Simpson
The Course
We are back at TPC Summerlin this week for what is always a popular tournament with those who like making birdies. The course is a par 71 and one of the easier of that par on the entire tour. It measures 7,255 yards but plays nothing like that yardage with the heat and altitude of Las Vegas. The rough is usually kept to a minimum here and the greens are enormous so it is very much a case of swing hard and make as many putts as you can.
There is no massive advantage in terms of length this week although it stands to reason with the rough down that the further you mow it off the tee the closer to the greens you’ll be. This will be a putting contest so players who hole lots of putts and who have shown some good recent form should be the ones to focus on. This isn’t really a week for the players who prefer the tougher courses.
The Field
These fall events have completely changed in dynamic this year with there not really being much of a reason for the players who finished in the top 50 on the FedExCup points list to play in these events as all those who have their tour card secured for next term are playing for here is entry into the designated tournaments. The exception to that here is Tom Kim who might well only be here because he is the defending champion.
Kim is joined by his fellow Korean player Si Woo Kim in the field this week while fellow international players Cam Davis and Adam Hadwin will look to make hay. The European challenge is spearheaded by Ludvig Aberg, who came so close to following up his part in the Ryder Cup victory a couple of weeks ago with a win in the Sanderson Farms Championship last week. Nicolai Hojgaard, Vincent Norrman and Aaron Rai support him from Europe while Adam Schenk, Tom Hoge and JT Poston rate the best of the Americans.
Market Leaders
We have 12/1 joint favourites to win the title this week with those being the defending champion Tom Kim and the new superstar on the block in Ludvig Aberg. Regular readers will know that I am no fan of backing defending champions in a tournament. His form since he won that title hasn’t been the best which is a concern. I would much prefer Aberg of the two but this will be his third straight week of golf and after an emotional Ryder Cup and a play-off loss I wonder if the energy reserves will be drying out.
Si Woo Kim is a fairly regular winner on the PGA Tour and he can be backed at 22/1 to add this title to his collection. He was last seen finishing fourth in the Asian Games a couple of weeks ago where he carded 23 under par and if he has that sort of scoring with him here he could be very dangerous. There is every chance that could happen because he has a couple of top 10 finishes and another in the top 15 here at TPC Summerlin.
Cam Davis comes next in the betting at 25/1. The powerful Australian was third at the Fortinet at the beginning of the fall part of the year. That continued some fine form that he showed to finish off 2023 and he has now finished inside the top 10 on four of his last five starts. His record here is a little different though. Despite all the length and ability he is yet to crack the top 25 in this tournament in four previous starts. That is a concern.
Adam Schenk is a 30/1 chance to win the tournament this week. He has had an excellent 2023 with no fewer than six top 10 finishes on his CV and although one of those was not here last year he did finish third here the year before. That was one of four top 20 finishes at TPC Summerlin and when you consider he is in the middle of his best year on tour it would be no surprise were he to land a maiden PGA Tour title this week.
Main Bets
Whenever these sorts of tournaments come up on the schedule I’m a big believer in siding with the confident player and with two wins in 2023 worldwide there aren’t going to be many more confident than Vincent Norrman. Having won the Barbasol Championship on the PGA Tour he then went over to Europe and added the Irish Open title to his ledger and that shows that he is hitting the ball well because you don’t win at the K Club if you are not. We know this Swede is powerful and can set up a lot of scoring positions and I expect him to be right in the mix in a very weak field outside the top two in the betting.
The other player I expect to perform well here is Lucas Herbert. He is one of the better putters on the PGA Tour so it stands to reason that in a putting contest we want someone who can roll his rock. At the Fortinet a couple of starts ago the Australian was fourth in strokes gained putting and he clocks in just outside the top 30 for that statistic for the whole season, with many of those above him being among the elite who are not here this week. Herbert was T20 here on debut last year and with a couple of positive spins to open up the season I think he is ready to go well on a course which should suit him.
Outsiders
I’ll go with a couple of outsiders over the course of the week as well with the first of those being a man who has a solid record here which I’m hoping can be upgraded with the much weaker nature of the field for this renewal. That man is Matthew NeSmith who has gone T18-T8-T14-T2 here in the last four years. If there is a slight concern then it would be that this is his first start of the season and he might need to shake off a bit of rust. There is clearly something about the open nature of this track that he enjoys though and given that his finishes in better fields than this have been good I’ll pay to see how he goes here.
The other player I like here is Harry Hall, the English player who came out of the University of Las Vegas which means he knows conditions in this area well and will probably have played Summerlin on a number of occasions. His two spins here have yielded T8 and T15 finishes which is no surprise because Hall is as high as fifth on the PGA Tour for strokes gained putting this season and in a tournament where putting is usually the key separator it stands to reason that a good putter goes well. Hall has some solid form in the book in 2023 and can enhance that with a big week here.
Tips
Back V.Norrman to win Shriners Children’s Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back L.Herbert to win Shriners Children’s Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back M.NeSmith to win Shriners Children’s Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back H.Hall to win Shriners Children’s Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
