The Sky Bet Championship weekend concludes with the Monday Night Football this week which promises to be one of the games of the season so far as promotion chasers Burnley and Leeds United face off at Turf Moor.
Leeds begin the night on top of the table and can go six points clear of third placed Burnley with a win here but a home win would see the Clarets move into second place and level on points with the visitors, unless it is a four goal win in which case Burnley would end the night on top of the table.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football channels with the extended build-up beginning at 7pm ahead of the kick off at 8pm.
Burnley
Burnley were one of the teams expected to go straight back up to the Premier League before a ball was kicked this season and although they aren’t yet in the automatic promotion spots, they are on track to achieve that aim. They head towards the final third of the Championship campaign having lost just twice all season and with a defence which is standing up to seemingly every test posed to it. They probably wouldn’t have wanted 11 draws from 28 matches but consistency is key in this division.
The one question mark over them both here and across the remainder of the campaign will be whether their defence can hold up. It has only conceded nine times in 28 matches and the more clean sheets they get the better they will be but they have only scored 36 goals in those games, five of which came in midweek when they pummelled Plymouth Argyle, so if they do concede there is no guarantee that they will come out on top in matches.
Leeds United
The ante-post favourites heading into the campaign this term was Leeds United despite them melting down in the pressure pot of the play-offs last season. There were some big players who left Elland Road in the summer and when you combine that with the hangover which can often come with losing in the play-off final, there was no guarantee that Daniel Farke and his men would be in the position they wanted to be in as we approach the final third of the campaign.
They very much are though. They sit on top of the Championship table and could move six points clear of third if they can come out on top here and they would very much be in control of their own destiny should they achieve that. No team in the league have scored more goals than Leeds this term and only their opponents here have conceded fewer so that will give them a lot of confidence as they cross the Pennines for the biggest match of their season so far.
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Team News
Scott Parker could have new signing Jonjo Shelvey involved in this match but he is definitely without the likes of Aaron Ramsey and Jordan Beyer while Nathan Redmond and Manuel Benson were doubts when the Burnley boss met the media on Friday.
Daniel Farke will head to Turf Moor with a fairly strong squad to select from for this contest with Pascal Strujik and Patrick Bamford the only players who are said to be injured. Largie Ramazani and Wilfried Gnonto may have to settle for spots on the bench once again.
Betting
We should be in for a high quality game of football in this match and it is one where I think the odds against on both teams to score looks a little too big. Burnley admitted don’t concede many goals but when you look at the xGA they should have conceded 23.6 which is a lot more than the nine they have shipped and against the best attack in the Championship I fancy that defence might struggle a little more than we often see. That was certainly the case when Sunderland were here recently.
Sunderland built up an xG of 2.85 in that match, 1.28 of which were non-penalty xG and if Leeds attack like they can then I expect them to breach this Burnley back line but at the other end Leeds have conceded in two of the only three games they have had away to teams in the top seven with West Brom being the one who didn’t score against them and they had a horrendous scoring record at home at the minute. Burnley are anything but free scoring but may well need to score to get something from this one so with the Leeds keeper liable to help the home side score at some point if they can’t do it themselves I think both teams to score is the play here.
Tips
Back Both teams to score for a 3/10 stake at 2.05 with William Hill
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