Two of the promotion spots from the Sky Bet Championship this season have been filled and the race for the third one resumes on Thursday night when Bristol City host Sheffield United in the first leg of the play-off semi-final at Ashton Gate.
This is the semi-final that pits sixth against third where there was the small matter of 22 points between the two sides in the regular season. Bristol City will know that counts for nothing here but will hope home advantage does.
Where to watch
The match will be shown on both the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football channels with the extended build-up beginning at 7pm ahead of the 8pm kick off in Gloucestershire.
Bristol City
These are heady days for Bristol City. They are the meme of being mid-table specialists usually but Liam Manning has ripped that script up this season and ensured that his side finished in the top six. They have been hard to beat at times this term and while they would rather not have drawn 17 matches, those draws have maintained enough momentum for them to finish in the top six and have a crack at a promotion to the Premier League.
Bristol City have only won one of their last five matches and needed to come from 2-0 down to Preston North End on the final day of the season to ensure they got into the play-offs. At Ashton Gate, the Robins are very strong at the minute. Only the top three picked up more points at home than Bristol City this season and only three sides have left Ashton Gate with a win so despite this being rarified air for the hosts, they should be confident here.
Sheffield United
The Blades were involved in the automatic promotion hunt right up until Easter Monday but it might not be a bad thing that they were denied a spot in the top two with a couple of matches left in the season. It has given them a couple of weeks to appreciate where they are and what they need to do and has given them a chance to ensure that they are as close to their best as they can be here. They do carry the pressure of the third placed side but the regular season highlights that there is a gulf between these two in their favour.
To be fair to Sheffield United, they could easily have downed tools for the last two games but that wasn’t the case. They went to Stoke and won and held a form side in Blackburn last week which bodes well. Only Burnley won more points on their travels than Sheffield United this term which is another positive for the Blades. The only question over them here is whether they go for the first leg win or are happy to remain in the tie and get Bristol City back to Bramall Lane with all to play for.
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Team News
Anis Mehmeti and George Earthy started the 2-2 draw with Preston North End last weekend on the bench but both are expected to return to the starting XI for this match. Mark Sykes and Cameron Pring are expected to miss out once again.
Chris Wilder has ruled Femi Seriki out of this first leg but is hopeful he could feature in the second one. Ben Brereton Diaz is a doubt after he has picked up an illness which could keep him out. Rhian Brewster could return having been on the bench last week.
Betting
I’ll go with a trio of bets for this opening leg with the first one being for both teams to score. These two sides should be comfortable in this match. Bristol City love playing at home and Sheffield United are very good on their travels so that bodes well, as does the fact that both meetings in the league phase of the campaign had both teams scoring. I do think you can get at both of these defences. It is now 11 matches without a clean sheet for Bristol City and they have conceded in their last seven at Ashton Gate. Sheffield United have only kept three clean sheets in their last 10 and two of those were against Stoke and Cardiff who were either down or in danger of going down on the final day of the season. The Blades have scored in 15 of their last 17 matches while Bristol City scored in 19 of their 23 home games this term. I think both teams can score here.
The second bet that I like here is for over 4 Asian cards. Matches between these two have been spiky this season and have often kicked off in injury time. In the recent meeting at Bramall Lane we saw four yellow cards in injury time while in the first meeting Rob Dickie was sent off for Bristol City after the 90 minute mark and in a tie which could have an edge to it in front of a passionate crowd who will be at the visitors at every opportunity we could easily see this turn into a bit of a tasty affair. We certainly have the referee to assist with that. Oliver Langford is the arbiter in this one. I was at Kenilworth Road a fortnight ago when he took charge of the game between Luton Town and Coventry City and he never had control of that at any stage and showed seven yellow cards and two reds, one of which was rescinded to prove he doesn’t get everything right which is no bad thing here. Langford seems to get very jittery in Bristol City matches. He has reffed them twice this season showing seven yellows and two reds away to Oxford with both men dismissed being Robins players and then recently against Sunderland another red was brandished, this time to an opposing player and four yellows came out. With reds counting as two cards with Bet365 this line looks attackable in a game that naturally is going to have an edge to it and a referee who can lose control quickly.
I also can’t ignore the 10/3 on Ross McCrorie to have a shot on target. He is getting forward quite a bit from the left wing-back position for Bristol City, so much so that he has got four goals in his last seven outings, including both goals against Preston last weekend. Sheffield United have had issues down their right side for a while now as I have picked up in the past. Alfie Gilchrist looks like being the right-back here but Chris Wilder has utilised Hamza Chowdhury there. Either way, it is the area Bristol City are likely to look to attack given that Anis Mehmeti will be that side too. He has had at least one shot on target in his last four home matches and looks a massive price to add to that collection here.
Tips
Back Both teams to score for a 3/10 stake at 2.15 with Coral
Back Over 4 Asian cards for a 3/10 stake at 1.93 with Bet365
Back R.McCrorie – Over 0.5 shots on target for a 2/10 stake at 4.33 with Bet365
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