There is one more match in the Sky Bet Championship weekend on Sunday and it is the big M1 derby as fierce rivals Watford and Luton Town battle it out in a clash which could well define the season of both of the teams.
Watford very much harbour hopes of making it into the play-offs at the end of the season but will need to win to stay in touch. Luton have dropped five points adrift of safety at the bottom of the table and their need is arguably even greater.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports+ channel where the short build-up to the contest begins at 11.50am ahead of the 12 noon kick off.
Watford
Watford now find themselves six points off the play-offs after the weekend results so far but a win here can move them back to within three with the final quarter of the season to come so even in a match where motivation was never going to be low, the Hornets still have plenty of it here. They would probably liked to have been slightly better off after 33 matches in the season but when you consider the really indifferent run of form they have been on, to be as close as they are to the top six is very welcome.
If Watford are going to win this match then they are going to need to end a run of five successive defeats at Vicarage Road, a run of form which would have been unwelcome at any time let alone when prior to that they were 9-2-0 for their first 11 matches here. Watford have struggled for attacking players in recent times which hasn’t helped their cause. They will also know they didn’t show up in the reverse fixture and will want to be right on it here.
Luton Town
If they weren’t already getting to that stage, things are getting very perilous for Luton Town as they look to avoid the ignominy of successive relegations from the Premier League into League 1. They will have sat back on Saturday and seen Hull City win their match against Sunderland which means that five points are now between the Hatters and safety and that is a number that will have everyone at Kenilworth Road sweating as we head towards the final quarter of the season.
One of the reasons why Luton are in this position is they are without a win on their travels in their last 14 matches, picking up just one point in that time. They have only won away once all season so you would have to think that they are going to need the ‘form goes out of the window in a derby’ cliché to come true for them to get anything from this. Four goals in their last seven matches is another damning indictment of this terrible season to date.
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Team News
Tom Cleverley has the services of Vakoun Bayo to call upon for this match after the forward has completed his three-match suspension. He has to choose whether to go with Bayo or stick with his deputy Mamadou Doumbia.
Luton boss Matt Bloomfield has confirmed that Carlton Morris has recovered from the illness which kept him out of the midweek draw with Plymouth Argyle but the fitness of Mark McGuinness, Shandon Baptiste, Jordan Clark and Daiki Hashioka.
Betting
It is hard to bet on this match, as it seems to be in many standalone matches in the Championship at present. Home advantage and the terrible away form that Luton Town are currently embarking would suggest Watford are the bet but then you would be backing a side who have lost their last five on home soil and were Luton to take the lead, especially after Watford did a no-show in the reverse fixture, the crowd could easily turn on the home side and you wouldn’t want your money on in that situation.
The bet I like here is for more than 40.5 booking points. You probably wouldn’t side with this one statistically but I expect a fiercely competitive match here and tackles could easily fly in on what will be a slick surface. Watford can’t afford to not show up in front of their own fans while Luton have to turn their season around here. By taking this bet rather than over 4.5 cards we can have the two yellows and a red escape route rather than needing another card on top of that combination. That could be useful because no team in the Championship have had more red cards this season than the Hatters.
Tips
Back Over 40.5 booking points for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Boylesports
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