We have one Sky Bet League One match taking place on Tuesday evening as two sides who saw a match postponed earlier in the campaign meet when Rotherham United look to continue their good form when they host Burton Albion.
Both teams find themselves in the bottom half of the table but that part of the standings is congested enough that whoever wins here could make a significant move up the table and have an air of comfort in their position.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live on the Sky Sports+ streaming section with the short build-up beginning around 7.30pm with the kick off coming at 7.45pm.
Rotherham United
After a poor start to the season, which wasn’t completely unexpected given how badly they finished the previous campaign, Rotherham United have clicked into a nice gear in recent weeks, one which they will hope hasn’t slowed down after their agonising defeat in the FA Cup at the weekend. In terms of league play, the Millers have won their last three matches and drawn the one before that so they are beginning to make a bit of a move up the table.
Although they have had to climb the table after a poor start to the season, Rotherham have only lost once on home soil this term, which was against the current leaders and probable favourites for the title Stockport County and even then they were competitive in the match. They have held high flying Bradford City here and beaten an improving Leyton Orient so this part of Yorkshire is becoming a bit of a fortress, a reputation they will hope to enhance here.
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Burton Albion
After surviving relegation last term with a strong run to end the season, Burton Albion will be looking to remain in the division a lot more comfortably this time around and although they begin the night a spot above the relegation zone, a win here could send them up into the top half of the table such is how congested everything is so that should act as a decent motivation for the Brewers to find what would be a third win on their travels this term.
That would also make it five matches undefeated on their travels and that includes wins at playoff chasing Cardiff City and AFC Wimbledon along with draws at Doncaster Rovers and Huddersfield Town. Burton are showing they can be hard to beat on their travels but if they are going to stay away from the relegation picture then they are going to need to find the net much more often than they are doing, with only rock bottom Peterborough United and Northampton Town having scored fewer goals than Burton.
Betting
This should be a good game between two sides who are showing much better form than they would have been expected to be in given their respective league positions. The first thing that I note when I look at these sides is that they are first and fourth in xGA in League 1 this season so that would suggest that both teams are going to get chances to score in this one. The flip side of that is that Rotherham are second worst on xG this season and in terms of goals to xG they are actually overperforming in front of goal.
That is likely to revert to the mean at some point but it might not happen against the team who give up the fourth best chances in the league in terms of xGA. Burton are heavily underachieving in terms of goals to chances created this season. They have missed 24 big chances this season which is fourth highest in the league and although they only have 11 goals, their xG total is 16.7. Against a defence which gives up lots of good chances, you could see Burton starting to close that gap. The numbers suggest these defences can’t be relied upon so over 2.5 goals looks good to me.
Tips
Back Over 2.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Betfred
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