The ODI series between South Africa and Australia continues on Tuesday when the two sides leave Bloemfontein and head to Potchefstroom for the third match of the scheduled five with the tourists 2-0 up after the opening two games.
That means that Australia have three chances to win the series, the first of which come here, while South Africa know if they are going to keep this World Cup warm-up series competitive for longer they have to win this match.
South Africa
After being demolished by Australia in the T20 series, South Africa looked to be more competitive in the opening ODI where they were probably one wicket away from getting over the line. They went back to type in the second ODI though where they were never in it at any stage and ended up getting trounced. This is becoming a concern now because although publicly they are shrugging it off and claiming that they are trying things, they are running out of time to find some confidence ahead of the World Cup.
The South African bowling in the T20s and in that last game was all over the place. They had the excuse in the T20s because they were resting their better bowlers but that wasn’t the case in the previous ODI and they need that unit to come to the party in a big way in this match. Their batters aren’t really delivering in a collective form either but there have been enough individual efforts to suggest that they can get on the board if their bowling does deliver.
Australia
I would imagine if you had asked the Australians whether they would have expected to be this dominant in the opening five matches on this tour when they arrived not many would have said yes. There is clearly an intention to play front foot, aggressive cricket, which is to their credit when you consider that Mitchell Marsh is only a stand-in skipper, but even then won’t have believed just how emphatic they have been able to win by so far.
Australia have won four of the five matches they have played on this tour very emphatically but the win which will probably have given them the most satisfaction and belief is the other one when they got themselves in a right hole but were able to get out of it. Their bowlers have done a decent enough job but they have been helped out by having a huge score on the board in the last game and conditions to suit in the first one. Nevertheless, they still have to be good enough to take advantage and have been.
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Team News
South Africa are going to be forced into a change because Anrich Nortje is struggling with a back complaint for this third match. Wayne Parnell might be the favourite to replace him as he’ll bring batting depth on top of a bowling option.
Australia have added Michael Neser to their squad for the remainder of the series which means they are going to give bowlers a rest. Josh Hazlewood is being managed anyway so we might not see him again until the World Cup.
Betting
While I accept we have moved grounds from the second match to the third one, the one thing I didn’t expect to see was the Australia boundaries line to actually go down after they nearly doubled the one that was set in the second ODI. The line has gone down to 31.5 and while we are in Potchefstroom now, these outgrounds which don’t see a lot of international cricket usually always ensure the pitch is good so that if there is more big time cricket doing the rounds they will be in the mix for it.
To highlight how well the pitch can play here, South Africa knocked off 260 in an ODI against West Indies on this ground earlier in the year and there were more than 20 overs left then they reached the target. That innings lasted 29.3 overs and South Africa hit 40 boundaries. Given the way that all of this Australia batting unit have had the domination of the South Africa bowlers I don’t see why the tourists aren’t going to keep clattering the boundaries. Australia’s attack looks to be weakening so the potential for South Africa to fail with the bat is less of an issue than it might have been so batting first or second I expect Australia to sail over 31.5 boundaries.
Tips
Back Australia – Over 31.5 boundaries for a 4/10 stake at 1.73 with William Hill
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