India continued their dominance of the ongoing ODI series against South Africa when they won the third match on Wednesday and they head to Johannesburg on Saturday knowing a fourth straight win will see them secure the series with two matches to play.
South Africa have been wretched in the series so far and will be desperate to get off the mark at the ‘Pink ODI’ and keep the series alive heading into the next match next week. Anything but a South Africa win and they’ve lost the series.
If there has been a positive for the South Africans from the first three matches it is that they don’t need to dig too deep to work out what has gone wrong for them. They have been terrible when it comes to facing spin in this series and unless that drastically improves here they will have lost the series without landing a blow in it.
There haven’t been many positives for South Africa so far though it has to be said. The first match was relatively close, as far as the scorecard suggests at least although India still had plenty in hand but the Proteas have been dished out a couple of brutal beatings in the second and third match and need a massive improvement here.
This is a ruthless India side and they have been close to perfect in every match so far. Things have been pretty easy for Virat Kohli so far in this series. He has bagged a couple of centuries and probably would have made another one had India not run out of runs they were chasing and with the ball he’s just thrown it to the leg spinners and let them wreak havoc.
That is a plan that has worked perfectly. India don’t need a confidence boost ahead of this match but if they wanted one they now get to play at the venue in which they got their only chalk on the board in the Test series. If there is one concern it is that their middle and lower order have not batted much but that is barely a problem given how much they have had in hand.
South Africa needed something to turn their fortunes around and they have AB de Villiers back for this match. They need him to offer something significant. With the altitude here and the pace and bounce in the track Morne Morkel could come in.
India have been unchanged for the series so far and unless there is an injury that they have not divulged that is likely to be the same here. When they win the series they might rotate but that time has not arrived yet.
There have been 45 previous matches in this format at the Bullring. South Africa have played in 32 of them and have won 75% of those matches with 24 wins to just eight defeats. India are 3-4 from their seven outings here.
We are almost guaranteed a good batting track here after the issues with the pitch during the Test match on this ground. It is a high scoring ground anyway with the altitude and the ball flying further combined with the lightning fast outfield and if South Africa can find a way to combat spin big scores should come here too.
The return of AB de Villiers should make this a more competitive match which is always good but even then I still expect India to win. I backed India to win the series before it began so I’m effectively on them to win this match and I’m happy to let that ride as far as the match outcome is concerned.
The bet I like here is over 11.5 sixes. We don’t need a high scoring match to get this many sixes on this ground especially with the way India are batting at the minute but if we do get one then a dozen sixes will almost be a given. AB de Villiers should help massively here. He averages a ton in ODIs on this ground. Mishits can go for six here and with the situation South Africa are in pretty much making them have a go I think the sixes line will be covered.
WON – Back Over 11.5 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill