The 2022 State of Origin series gets settled on Wednesday when the Queensland Maroons and New South Wales Blues battle it out at the Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane with everything to play for after two completely contrasting matches to date.
This will be the second chance that Queensland have had to win the series after falling flat on their face in Perth last time out. After emphatically getting themselves back into the series, the Blues will look to seal the series in enemy territory.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Arena channel with the build-up to Game 3 beginning at 10am UK time and the kick off coming at Suncorp Stadium at 11.10 BST.
Queensland Maroons
If the Queensland Maroons are to win this series then they are going to need to put the previous match behind them quickly. To be fair, as they approached half time in Perth they weren’t in a terrible position but they were reduced to 12 men just prior to the break and completely collapsed in a heap after the interval. They showed in the first three 40 minutes of the series that they can be competitive but opposing teams don’t forget a soft showing.
Rebounding from that defeat was always going to be one issue that the Queensland Maroons needed to overcome in this match but they are going to have to do it without their livewire playmaker Cameron Munster who tested positive for Covid and will miss this encounter. Murray Taulagi will also miss out on the wing for the same reason. Neither of those will help Queensland here but one thing which will is the home crowd at Suncorp. Queensland have won 13 of the last 14 matches here when the series was still alive. They’ve also won the last seven game threes so this ground will need to inspire them again.
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New South Wales Blues
After they dropped the opening match in pretty ordinary fashion, New South Wales Blues deserve a lot of credit for the way they bounced back in style to force this deciding match. The big players who didn’t stand up for them in that opening game did so in the second one and they will need to here as well if the Blues are going to repel the statistic than nearly 75% of the series are won by the team who wins the opening game.
When you add in the New South Wales record at Suncorp Stadium in recent years they are up against it from a history point of view. Realistically though you would imagine that if they can produce anything close to the level of performance they had in the second half in Perth they should justify their tag as favourites for this match. They will need to start better than they have done at any stage in the series though as their first half performances have been very sluggish and at Suncorp the last thing they need is for the crowd to get up.
Betting
I do think New South Wales Blues win the series here but I’m less certain they cover 10 points in the process. I think we’re all set for a tight final match and had Cameron Munster been available then I would have had no problem backing the Queensland Maroons outright. Clearly his absence is a huge loss but what it does do is pile the pressure onto the Blues who have a terrible record in this stadium when they weren’t expected to win let alone when they are 10 point favourites.
Nobody is expecting the Maroons to win now without their talismanic playmaker but they’ll still go into battle with 17 men who will know they need to step up but who will be motivated by being written off. The crowd will play a huge part for the home side as well and although I think they’ll come up just short overall in this match, I fully expect the Maroons to keep close enough order through the likes of Dale Cherry-Evans and Kalyn Ponga to cover a 10 point handicap.
Tips
Back Queensland Maroons (+10) to beat New South Wales for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfred
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