The two great rivals of Australian rugby league battle it for the second time in the 2023 State of Origin series on Wednesday when Queensland host New South Wales at the Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.
Queensland head home knowing that they can seal the series with a match to spare after their success in game one in Adelaide. New South Wales know it is win or bust here as they go about forcing a decider.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Arena channels in the UK. The build-up to the contest begins at 10am ahead of the kick off at 11.05am.
Queensland
Queensland went into the opening match as the underdogs but it is a tag they have carried well in recent State of Origin matches and few expected them to get the job done last season and they were able to. The really appealing thing about their win in the opening game is that the time they took control in Adelaide they had a man in the sin bin and that should have been when they were most vulnerable. To be able to get on top in such circumstances will give them a lot of confidence here.
The boot is kind of on the other foot now though. They are the favourites for this match, largely because of home advantage in a stadium where they have a wonderful record, but also because the opposition have some key injuries that they need to deal with. Queensland will know that there is a second chance for them if they slip up here but that will on away territory so the Maroons will know this represents their best chance of success.
New South Wales
Having slipped up in the opening game when they were favourites going in and had their opponents seemingly where they wanted them, New South Wales now know they are heavily up against it if they are going to reclaim the shield, but if they can go into enemy territory and come out on top then the situation flips and it will be them expected to run out in front in what would be a series decider in Sydney next month.
It is becoming a bit of a trend in this series that New South Wales have all of the play and the territory but Queensland hold them out and then when they have to defend themselves they are unable to get the job done. It would be daft to assume anything is going to change for this match so they are either going to have to be much more clinical when they are in the Queensland 20 or they are going to have to be a lot more resilient defensively.
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Team News
Queensland have made three changes to their starting XIII for this match with Xavier Coates coming in for Selwyn Cobbo on the wing while Lindsay Collins gets a start ahead of Reuben Cotter at prop. Jeremiah Nanai comes into the second row in place of Tom Gilbert.
The big team news as far as this match is concerned is that New South Wales will be without key playmaker Nathan Cleary. He will be replaced by Mitchell Moses in one of three changes for the away side. Junior Paulo starts at prop and there is a return for Damien Cook at nine.
Betting
New South Wales were going to be up against it in this match regardless of what happened in the first game of the series because Queensland have an imperious record here at Suncorp Stadium having won 13 of the last 16 Origin matches which have been played at this Brisbane venue. When you then factor in that New South Wales are without the player they could probably least do without when trying to get an away win in Nathan Cleary and suddenly the home side look good things.
Queensland won by 10 points in the previous game as underdogs and when they were short-handed for 10 minutes. Not only did they go down to 12 men for 10 minutes but that happened in the 68th minute at a time where the legs should have been tiring anyway. That shows the resilience of them and tells us that they can come good in the last 20 minutes if they are behind but if they get in front and the combination of Mitchell Moses and Jarome Luai don’t hit it off I can see New South Wales getting overwhelmed. I like Queensland to win by a converted try here.
Tips
Back Queensland (-5.5) to beat New South Wales for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Betway
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