The greatest rivalry in rugby league returns for another series on Wednesday when the 2025 State of Origin gets underway with the opening game of the three coming from Brisbane where the Queensland Maroons host the New South Wales Blues.
The Blues took the series down last year and begin their defence of the shield in enemy territory on Wednesday knowing that if they can come away with the win they will be massive favourites to keep the crown. Queensland know they have all the advantages to draw first blood so this should be a cracking series opener.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Action channels with the extended build-up beginning at 10am ahead of the kick off at 11.05am UK time.
Queensland Maroons
All eyes will be on the Queensland Maroons in this series opener. This was the venue where they lost the series a year ago and so people will be looking to see if there is a hangover from that. The Maroons go into the opener as the outsiders to win which will probably smart them a little but if they lose here and Suncorp loses its status as a fortress then you wonder the impact it will have on Queensland in the long-term.
Billy Slater has kept his job as the coach but you would imagine that he is playing for his job in this series and therefore it is probably no surprise that he is keeping with experience in the spine of his side, although the injury to Ben Hunt is a concern. If Queensland are going to win this then their forward pack will need to be at their very best and when the chances to score come along they have to make sure that they don’t come up dry at any point.
New South Wales Blues
The New South Wales Blues know that they can win in Suncorp because they did it a year ago and with game two at a neutral venue and game three in Sydney, should the Blues come away with a win here they would take a huge step towards keeping hold of the shield. They have the chance to put a real marker down here not just for the series but perhaps for the continuation of a dynasty which could see them dominate for a period of time.
The big change since last season for the Blues is they will look to defend their crown under a new coach. Michael McGuire has left to take up the position with Brisbane and as such Laurie Daley returns. He appears to have kept everything as it was with only one debutant being called into the squad, the lowest amount of debutants in an Origin opener for 31 years. New South Wales look dynamic in the backs and if their forwards can win the battle too they are going to be hard to beat.
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Team News
Billy Slater has Cameron Munster back in his side for this one and he will resume his partnership with Daly Cherry-Evans. Robert Toia and Trent Loiero are both in line for their debut in this match but Ben Hunt misses out with injury.
Laurie Daley has kept things pretty simple but he has chosen to go with Mitchell Moses alongside Nathan Cleary in the halves rather than use Jerome Luai. There is a doubt on the eve of the match over Stephen Crichton which could throw their plans up in the air a little.
Betting
If this match is decided by the players on the pitch I find it hard to see New South Wales losing. I’m not going to hide away from the fact that I’m no fan of Laurie Daley and if the Blues are going to lose this match and/or the series he will probably find a way of getting involved in it but if he can keep out of his team’s way then man for man it is hard to make a genuine case that the Maroons are better in too many areas so apart from home advantage, Queensland don’t have a huge amount going for them here in my eyes.
Queensland certainly aren’t better in the centres or the halves and I’m not massively convinced they are better in the forwards either, especially if Payne Haas suits up as he is expected to do. One area where the home side might have the edge is off the bench with Tom Dearden potentially a game changer but Queensland would need to be in the game at that point. The likes of Latrell Mitchell, Stephen Crichton, Nathan Cleary, Mitchell Moses and Payne Haas are all among the best in the game in their position if not the best and that spine can lead New South Wales to a second successive Suncorp win.
Tips
Back New South Wales (-3.5) to beat Queensland for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
