We are hours away from Super Bowl LII which means we have just enough time to go through the plethora of markets that are priced up for the big night and pick out some value bets for us to get stuck into for the huge game.
As ever we have literally hundreds of markets and they are not all on the game itself either. You can be on the national anthem, the half-time show and many post-match markets. While we like to be down with the kids on this site we have to admit that Justin Timberlake is not our thing so we will leave his stint alone and focus on the game. There are four markets to go at.
In recent times the Super Bowl has been a high scoring contest with four of the last five matches seeing the points total sail beyond the 50 point mark but I’m not so sure this one will follow suit because I think the Eagles have the set up to frustrate and contain the Patriots as well as they can be contained anyway.
I would expect the Eagles to look to manage the clock through their running back options while when their defence is on the field Brady is unlikely to get the time to step up and launch the deep bombs so we could well be in for a match with lengthy and sustained drives. As long as defences and special teams don’t combine for a bunch of points I fancy this match will buck the recent trend and go under 48.5pts.
Nearly every player who is expected to suit up has a number of markets priced up about them and you could really go mad on bets if you are not careful. With bets on the two main markets there is only one player who has a market I am interested in and that is the British running back Jay Ajayi.
I’m fully expecting Belichick to look to negate the Philadelphia run game and that could mean that Ajayi struggles for yards along the ground and any yards he does make could be in dump off passes. If Ajayi struggles then Pedersen could use their other running backs more to try and burst through which would also hamper Ajayi’s rushing yards total. The line on him is 65.5 which he narrowly covered against Minnesota last time out but he had only gone past it once in six matches prior to that. Against the shutdown tactics of the Patriots I’m less than convinced he will go past it here.
If you are not going to have a couple of big priced punts on the Super Bowl where generally anything can happen then when will you? We’re going to have a couple of punts at hefty odds beginning with the man who will get into the end zone first.
Offensive stars come thick and fast in this match and while the likes of Gronkowski and Ertz are obvious selections they might be too obvious given that both coaches have had two weeks to come up with strategies to negate threats in the opposition. With that in mind I’m going to think outside the box.
LeGarrette Blount has scored a touchdown in each of the Philadelphia Eagles’ two play-off matches thus far and one of those, against the Atlanta Falcons, was the first touchdown in the match. Blount will be eager to prove a point given that he was dismissed by the Patriots and often these things come back to haunt sides. At 16/1 the Eagles running back looks good value to open the touchdown scoring.
The general consensus is that the Most Valuable Player will be the winning quarterback and a lot of the time that is the case but it isn’t always the rule especially in recent times where two of the last four recipients have been defensive players.
Given how vaunted this Patriots offense is it would not be a surprise that were the Eagles to win that one of their defensive stars gets the nod and that is what I’m going to take a chance on. I don’t think Philadelphia can win this Super Bowl unless Fletcher Cox gives Tom Brady a tough night. If there is a way to contain Brady it is with pressure through the middle and few are better than Cox at providing that. If the Eagles are the Super Bowl winners he is likely to have made a big impact and at 100/1 it is well worth chancing that the defensive tackle receives the ultimate honour on the night.
Back Under 48.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with BetVictor
WON – Back J.Ajayi – Under 65.5 receiving yards for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
Back L.Blount First Touchdown Scorer for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with 888sport
Back F.Cox MVP for a 1/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral