The eyes of the rugby league world will be on Old Trafford on Saturday evening as the Super League XXVII Grand Final will be played out when St Helens take on the Leeds Rhinos in a battle of the two most successful sides of the Super League era.
St Helens are 80 minutes away from a fourth successive Super League crown but if there is a team who know how to peak at Old Trafford it is the Leeds Rhinos so we are all setup for a classic showdown to end the season.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Arena channels with a bumper build-up beginning at 5pm ahead of the Old Trafford showpiece kicking off at 6pm.
St Helens
They have ridden a rockier road than in the previous three years but St Helens are here to win their fourth successive Super League crown and they will be looking to knock off a fourth different team over that span. They have already seen off Salford Red Devils, Wigan Warriors and the Catalans Dragons in this dominant run and now their sights are set on seeing off the Leeds Rhinos. It goes without saying Saints will need to be at their best here.
I think what we will need to see from St Helens is their best attacking rugby here. They are known for their defensive approach but I think we need to see the best of them at the other end of the pitch. The three finals St Helens have won have all been low scoring affairs but you sense this one might need a few more points because they are not playing a side who could get stage fight or in bizarre circumstances like when they beat Wigan two years ago.
Leeds Rhinos
There is a case to be made that just making it to the Grand Final is an achievement in itself after the start to the season they had but nobody goes to the big dance just happy to be there and not determined to win the game. This will still be a good campaign for the Rhinos if they do lose but they haven’t come through two away knockout matches to not give of their best and lay it down to St Helens over the course of these 80 minutes.
If Leeds are going to win this match they have to defend their try line as well as they did in the semi-final win at Wigan. They were excellent defensively in that match and if they repeat that here then they will have every chance because we know they have the power down the middle and the quality in the halves to create scoring opportunities. The other thing Leeds have to do is control their discipline. They don’t need to be playing this final with less than 13 players.
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Team News
Quite incredibly St Helens have Morgan Knowles available for this Grand Final after he had his suspension overturned on appeal. There will be no Alex Walmsley but Will Hopoate has a chance of being fit for the match.
Leeds Rhinos will be without their half-back Aidan Sezer for this match after he went off having failed a HIA in the semi-final. Harry Newman, Jack Walker, Morgan Gannon and David Fusitu’a will also be missing but Rhyse Martin returns from suspension.
Betting
I think this is a closer final than the bookmakers suggest and while I think St Helens will win it I’m not sure there will be too much between the sides so I would prefer to focus on the points in this match where on the face of it the 32.5 line looks low but only one of the last eight Grand Finals have had more than that number and I’m far from convinced these two defensively smart sides will be opened up enough for more than that number here. These two have played three play-off matches between then and none of them have gone over this line while in the three finals they have won recently St Helens have restricted their opponent to 20 points in total. The last six losing teams have failed to score more than 10 points and if that trend continues the over should be out of reach in what I expect to be a tight, tense and pretty physical final. I like the under here.
With that in mind I’ll also back the scoring to be opened with a penalty. Tries are going to be hard to come by in this match so the two points will be taken when they are on offer. The last two Grand Finals saw the scoring opened by the boot and I fancy that might continue here. The first Leeds play-off match was started off with a penalty opening the scoring and last week against Wigan even though they were behind Leeds’ first scoring play was a penalty. St Helens opened with a try last week but that was because they were all over Salford. I expect this start to be more even so backing the scoring to be opened by a penalty makes a lot of sense.
Tips
Back Under 32.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
Back First Scoring Play – St Helens Penalty for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with Boylesports
Back First Scoring Play – Leeds Rhinos Penalty for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with Boylesports
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