Ben Stokes almost singlehandedly kept England alive in The Ashes at Headingley just over a week ago, which means we go into chapter four of this compelling series locked at 1-1. The next leg begins in Manchester on Wednesday where Australia remain a win away from retaining the urn.
Old Trafford has staged many big and important battles in its time and this one is right up there, with England knowing that they can’t afford to lose, but at the same time a win leaves them holding all the aces heading into the series decider.
England
They came from the despair of the darkest hole at Headingley to win the third Test but if England are foolish enough to think that just because they got over the line things are rosy in their garden, they could be in for a rude awakening. The win was very good and should be applauded but they shouldn’t fall into the trap of thinking that the victory did anything but paper over the cracks that have been in their side for far too long now.
England won’t win too many Test matches when they are bowled out for 67 in the first innings. Low first innings scores have been a trend for too long and it can’t go on. They need their top four to stand up and be counted in this series, not least because their bowlers are likely to have their work cut out a little more. Rest assured, if England are to stay in this series this is going to need an insanely good effort.
Australia
It might well be good for the Australians that there has been a week off in between the last Test and this one as the disappointment they will have felt coming away from Headingley would have taken a while to get over. They will know they should have won that match and that they let it slip away from them but having had the time to recover they should have steeled themselves enough to go hard at it here.
Australia will take the confidence from having their talisman back for this match, while their bowling attack is going to be nice and fresh which could also be significant. They will know they have dominated the series to date so if they can keep doing what they are doing and just be a little more ruthless when the winning moment comes along they will expect to leave Manchester with the urn safely secured in their grasp.
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Team News
England have confirmed that they will make one change for this match with Craig Overton coming in for Chris Woakes. Their batting line up has also switched with Joe Denly moving up to open and Jason Roy playing in the middle order.
Australia have confirmed that Steve Smith will replace Usman Khawaja while they will also make a change to their bowling attack. James Pattinson will sit this one out so they will choose between Peter Siddle and Mitchell Starc to replace him.
Old Trafford
There have been 78 previous Test matches on this ground and as you would expect, England have played in all but one of them. Their record is ok although draws dominate this venue. 35 of the 77 matches they have played here have ended in a draw but they do lead 28-14 in the other contests. Australia are 8-7 with a winning record with 15 draws making up their 30 encounters here.
England haven’t lost a Test on this ground since 2001 so it is a good venue for them with the pace and bounce in the wicket good for all departments of their game. It is also decent for Australia too. This wicket should be good for batting but that all depends on whether the batting units are good enough to make hay on it. Based on what we’ve seen in the series so far, that is doubtful.
Betting
I’ll go with three bets for this match. As an Englishman I hope I’m wrong with the first one as I’m taking Australia to get the job done here. Had it not been for a miracle escape courtesy of Ben Stokes in the previous match, Australia will already have had the share of the series their dominance has deserved. That sort of recovery will never happen again so England really need to up their game if they are going to win here. England have a good record on this ground but there is no denying that their batting looks a mess. This is probably the strongest Australia have looked all series personnel wise and they can secure the urn again with a win here.
Jofra Archer covered his performance in the previous match and I expect him to do likewise here. This is actually the match I was most looking forward to seeing him in because the pace and bounce on this ground could make him even scarier than we’ve already seen him be in the series to date. He has 13 wickets in his two matches and six more here with a few runs on top will see him cover a 125.5pt line for the second match in a row. Conditions here should make him very dangerous.
Jos Buttler is on his home ground and at 11/1 I’m happy to pay to see how well he performs here. Buttler will probably be aware that his place in the side is under threat so he needs a decent match here and England need one from him as well. He showed in the World Cup final that he can play big innings under big pressure and with him down at seven which probably suits him and with a couple of batsmen to come after him he should have the chance of top scoring. I’ll pay to see how he goes.
Tips
WON – Back Australia to win 4th Test for a 3/10 stake at 2.75 with Coral
Back them here:
Back J.Archer’s Performance – Over 125.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back J.Buttler Top England first innings batsman for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 with Betfred
Back him here:
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