The Ashes have already been retained but there is still plenty to play for when Australia and England head to the Melbourne Cricket Ground for the Boxing Day Test match as the fourth game of five is played out at the iconic venue.
Australia have won all three matches so far and will love nothing more than securing another whitewash and will look to go a win away from achieving that. England players will be playing for their futures and the future of their coach so shouldn’t be downing tools just yet.
Australia
I doubt that there was any thought within the Australia dressing room that they wouldn’t win this series but one or two might have thought they would be going to Melbourne with the series still alive given that they have missed four key players at various points in the opening three games. They have coped perfectly well without them though and have pretty much dominated the series so far, or at least the key moments in the series, and if anything look to be getting better by the match.
There is no doubt that Australia are batting as well now as they have done at any point in the series and they will have arguably their best batter back for this one as well. The question around them winning this match will come via their bowling unit which is now going to be missing three of its main four bowlers. That didn’t bother them with the pink ball in Brisbane but it will be interesting to see if a makeshift attack can keep delivering here. If they can then 4-0 is a real possibility.
England
When England stepped on the plane for this series they would have been thinking that they could win the three matches that the needed to ensure that the urn would be accompanying them on the flight home but the reality has been the exact opposite of that as they have been found out and ruthlessly exposed. To be fair to them, they were in positions which they could have build into commanding ones in the first two matches and played their best cricket in the third one but all three still resulted in defeat.
The big problem England have had is with the ball and the shot selection of their batters. Again, to be fair the batters were much better at that in Adelaide but they still allowed some soft dismissals to come in and that proved costly. Their bowlers have got it all wrong since the opening innings of the series though and if they haven’t learned their lessons then you suspect this match will go the same way as the first three. It definitely will if England continue to put catches down as they have in the last two games.
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Team News
Australia will be forced into two changes from the last match with injury ruling Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon out of the remainder of the series. Steve Smith is back after his vertigo issues in Adelaide with Todd Murphy now the sole spinner in the squad.
England have already named their team for this match and it contains two changes. The patience has run out with Ollie Pope and Jacob Bethell will come in for him while Jofra Archer has been ruled out of the last two matches and Gus Atkinson returns in his place.
Betting
This match isn’t the easiest to bet on because although we hope motivation won’t be an issue we are guessing until we see both teams in action now that the series is over so I’ll restrict myself to a couple of small bets and look to play the Sydney game much stronger. The first bet I like is for Alex Carey to be the man of the match at 18/1. He is getting plenty of plaudits for his keeping and he might well have another bowler to be up to the stumps for in this match but England are having big issues dealing with him when he has the bat in hand. In his last three innings in this series Carey has made 63, 106 and 72 and if the new ball does a bit as it has been doing recently here, Australia might well need a decent run output from Carey. There is no Jofra Archer, England’s best bowler to left handers, here so there is no reason why the Carey run scoring should slow down. At 18/1 he is overpriced to land the man of the match honours here.
The other bet I like is the 12/1 for Will Jacks to be the top England batter in the first innings. Jacks has put up a couple of solid rearguard efforts in the last two matches and has looked as technically sound as anyone in this England team. He will know there is at least one spot in the top six up for grabs going forward and maybe even a second so a strong showing in the last two games could have one of those spots as his to lose when England are thinking about a squad for the New Zealand series next summer. In truth, no England batter is really looking the part at the minute but if Jacks can turn the 41 and 47 he has made in the second innings of the last two games into something just a bit more substantial, and with Gus Atkinson back to bolster the lower order he very well could, I think Jacks might be overpriced at 12/1.
Tips
Back A.Carey Man of the Match for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with Sky Bet
Back W.Jacks Top England 1st Innings Batter for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with Boylesports
Back him here:
