The PGA Tour remains on the west coast this week for the final leg of the West Coast Swing which sees Tiger Woods once again hosting the Genesis Invitational, the latest Signature Event where the stars are very much out in force.
Hideki Matsuyama was the winner of this iconic tournament a year ago and he is back in the field looking to make a successful defence of the crown but he is going to have to attempt to do it on a different track as the fires in Los Angeles have forced the event to move for this season.
Recent Winners
2024 – Hideki Matsuyama
2023 – Jon Rahm
2022 – Joaquin Niemann
2021 – Max Homa
2020 – Adam Scott
2019 – JB Holmes
2018 – Bubba Watson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Bubba Watson
2015 – James Hahn
The Course
Usually this tournament takes place at Riviera Country Club but the recent fires that swept through Los Angeles have forced the event to move and so we go back to Torrey Pines for the second time this season. The track that hosted the Farmers Insurance Open last month will be used again for this tournament so we are fairly familiar with the test this week. That tournament uses the North Course and the South Course but we are only on the latter this week and that is a par 72 which can stretch 7,765 yards.
It might play to that full yardage too because the weather at the beginning of the tournament is forecast to take a turn for the worst so a course which generally favours the longer hitters is likely to double down on that here so make sure you keep those with length on side. The wind is expected to blow on Thursday too so keep an eye on that. We’re looking for meaty drivers this week because the rough is quite thick so those who miss it will benefit from being as far down each hole as possible.
The Field
You always got a decent field in this tournament because it is hosted by Tiger Woods, who was scheduled to make his first appearance on an actual golf course this week but the recent passing of his mother has impacted that and he has withdrawn, but since it was elevated to a Signature Event a top level field is guaranteed, headed by the world number one Scottie Scheffler and the man who won the last elevated event at Pebble Beach in the form of Rory McIlroy.
Thomas Detry played his way into the field by winning the Phoenix Open last week and he joins a European charge which includes Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Sepp Straka and Viktor Hovland among others. There is a decent international charge teeing it up this week too. It is headed by Hideki Matsuyama and includes Sungjae Im, Taylor Pendrith, Jason Day and Tom Kim among others while home challengers include Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau. The field is loaded this week.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler looked more like himself for the majority of last week in Phoenix and you would imagine his improvement will continue to be natural given that he is working his way back to full speed after his injury which meant he didn’t play here last month. He is 9/2 to win the tournament and while the quality is stacked here you would have to say with the record of winning he has over the last couple of years that is getting towards a fair price, especially when he ticks the length and comfort in the wind boxes.
Rory McIlroy won the previous Signature Event at Pebble Beach and he is 15/2 to add the Genesis Invitational to his collection of trophies too. He looked pretty good at Pebble in conditions which he doesn’t always prevail in. At his best he eats up soft courses so you can see why there has been money for the Irishman in the lead up to the tournament. If his putter gets going then he is going to be a huge runner this week, it is just whether the price is your sort of thing.
Collin Morikawa is a 14/1 third favourite to win the tournament this week. If tee-to-green game is the strength required this week then there aren’t many better around than him. The obvious concern would be a lack of length in comparison to some of the others in the field but if he can overcome that then he has a decent enough record in the Farmers here. I wouldn’t be completely surprised if he won this but I’d fancy him more on a firmer, faster Torrey Pines than we are likely to see.
Justin Thomas looks like he has come out of the slump that he was in in his career and as such he is 18/1 to take down this tournament. He finished last week T6 in Phoenix although he was never better than that. He was second at The American Express prior to that and he has a solid enough record here at Torrey Pines throughout the years. Thomas is long enough off the tee and if he can get the putter cooperating early he is another who wouldn’t be a surprise winner.
Main Bets
I think length is going to be key this week and that brings me back to Ludvig Aberg as one of my main bets. He has been suffering with a bit of illness during the west coast events so far but you would like to think he is over that by now and if he is then this soft track should be ideal for his aggressive play both from the tee and into the greens. These greens shouldn’t be as tough to putt on when they are slightly softer but even if they are the Swede certainly isn’t a poor putter by any means. I think if Aberg hadn’t struggled in recent tournaments then he would be much shorter than this but I’ll take the chance that he is over his illness and comes out firing here.
Taylor Pendrith is my other go to man when it comes to big hitters prevailing and I see no reason why he can’t go very well this week. He will enjoy the fairways being wider due to them being softer and he has shown that he can handle any winds which sweep across Torrey Pines this week. He is aggressive into the greens at the best of times and that is only likely to be even more the case this week with the track being as soft as it is and so if he can get the putter cooperating early on then he could be a massive runner with conditions to suit.
Outsiders
Harris English won around here just three weeks ago and while conditions weren’t as soft as they are expected to be this week, it has to be a positive that he is returning to the scene of a memorable win for him. That was recent enough for us to know that he is hitting the ball very well and also that he can handle this course. English can be a streaky player when it comes to his form so it might well be worth following him for a while anyway. In an ideal world he would be slightly longer off the tee but his all-round game is good enough to handle this track and at an outsider price I just can’t ignore him here.
Daniel Berger looks to be coming back to form as well after all of his injury struggles in the past and when he is at his best he is able to contend in any tournament that he tees it up in. Berger leads the PGA Tour for total driving this season which is going to be huge this week with the rough likely to start juiced up and get plenty of watering as the week goes on from the natural elements. Berger was second in Phoenix last week where he effectively shared the tournament which was being played behind Thomas Detry and so he comes here in decent nick and looks well worthy of support at 70/1.
Tips
Back L.Aberg to win Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-6)
Back T.Pendrith to win Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back D.Berger to win Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back H.English to win Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
