The West Coast Swing ended with a thrilling tournament at Riviera last week and now the Florida Swing begins with another exciting tournament when The Honda Classic takes place at Palm Beach this week.
Bubba Watson landed a second Northern Trust title last week narrowly holding off a high quality field and while Watson doesn’t tee it up this week there isn’t much of a drop off in the standard of players who will take on the challenge this event provides.
The field is headed once again by the former champion Rory McIlroy. He is the 13/2 favourite to win another Honda title. Rickie Fowler is also in the field and he’s the 12/1 second favourite with Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott both 20/1. Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson sit at the 22/1 match with it being 33/1 back that high class quintet.
Once again we are back at PGA National this week where the Champion Course famed for its ‘Bear Trap’ will be in operation. The Bear Trap is holes 15-17 which requires two precise tee shots on par 3s to avoid water and a very daunting tee shot on 16. If you get through there 18 is no gimme over water either so plenty of drama takes place around this golf course.
The course itself is a par 70. It only measures 7,140 yards but it was the most par 70 outside of a major on the entire tour last year. Very rarely do scores get into double digits here so for a second week in a row if you like your golf tough you are in luck.
You need to hit the greens here but that isn’t always easy with the wind blowing, and it is expected to blow hard at times this week. Water is in play on a number of holes and the greens provide a tough test too. This is a great test of an all-round game.
If you managed to find the winner of this tournament in the last 10 years then barring one or two occasions you will have been paid quite handsomely. A number of outsiders have gone in here in the past including the defending champion Padraig Harrington.
For all that though I see 2016 as slightly different as with the majors moved around for the Olympics a lot of the star players began their seasons much earlier and come to Florida in a better groove so I’m expecting a bigger name winner this week.
I think the statistics we’re looking at this week are bogey avoidance, greens in regulation and putting. A good attitude is paramount too because adversity awaits everyone here. We also want someone who can handle the wind.
The course isn’t too demanding off the tee in most places but from there it gets tough. It is a typical Nicklaus layout in that regard and the ‘Golden Bear’ stamped his mark on the course with a redesign of it some years ago.
With all that in mind my first pick this week is going to be Phil Mickelson. Amazingly he hasn’t got his name on this trophy yet but statistically he has a great chance this week. He sits in the top 10 on bogey avoidance on Tour this year and we know what a wonderful putter he is.
Mickelson has threatened a win a few times this season already but it hasn’t materialised yet. I don’t think it is far away though with the way he hitting the ball currently and at 22/1 given his prowess in windy conditions he is my first pick here.
Another man who ranks well statistically is Kevin Kisner and I’m expecting another big week from him too. He sits as high as fourth in bogey avoidance on the Tour and is just outside the top 20 for hitting greens in regulation. He is also inside the top 15 for strokes gained putting so he has all the tools needed this week.
Any doubts we had about him in the wind disappeared when he won the RSM Classic. He went well in Hawaii earlier in the year too where it is always windy so with excellent form behind him and all the credentials needed to tame this course Kisner is an automatic pick.
My final main pick is a man who goes very well around here in the form of Russell Knox. Knox hit the big time earlier in the season when he won the WGC HSBC Champions and he is likely to kick on in his career now.
He nearly won the OHL Classic the following week and while he didn’t go great guns in the Pebble Beach Pro-am that is a quirky event. He has all the tools you need around here. He is second in bogey avoidance and leads the greens in regulation on the Tour this year.
With a second placed finish and a third placed finish in the last two years here he is clearly comfortable here. The wind doesn’t worry him so the Scot looks another solid chances this week.
Another man comfortable in the wind is Graeme McDowell and I can’t leave him out of the equation this week. A man solid with an iron in his hand and a great putter should go really well and he is very much that.
He is third in bogey avoidance on Tour and eighth in greens hit in regulation. We’ve seen all season, not least when he won the OHL Classic, that the putter is cooperating again and I’m expecting another big week for Gmac.
Finally I’m going to have a shot at the Sony Open winner Fabian Gomez, another who catches the eye statistically. The Argentine showed in Hawaii how he can handle the wind and he is currently 10th in bogey avoidance and 25th for greens in regulation on tour.
That should see him go well and if he putts as well as he did in Hawaii then he is going to look overpriced very quickly even in this field. He’s worth a small punt.
Back P.Mickelson to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back K.Kisner to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Knox to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
PLACED – Back G.McDowell to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back F.Gomez to win Honda Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
