Spring has sprung which means that the golfing attention heads towards Magnolia Lane and the opening major of the year at Augusta National when some of the stars of the game head to Georgia for The Masters.
Scottie Scheffler was the man who landed the Green Jacket last year and he will be the one looking to earn another when he bids to defend the title but there is a collection of seriously good golfers looking to have the jacket put on their shoulders.
Recent Winners
2024 – Scottie Scheffler
2023 – Jon Rahm
2022 – Scottie Scheffler
2021 – Hideki Matsuyama
2020 – Dustin Johnson
2019 – Tiger Woods
2018 – Patrick Reed
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Danny Willett
2015 – Jordan Spieth
The Course
If you are a big golf fan you will know all about Augusta National but anyone who may not be familiar with the track it is a par 72 which stretches to 7,555 yards and with rain in the area in the early stages it is expected to play to a full yardage. The fairways are wide here and the rough never really too penal particularly with the greens being soft which they will be even allowing for the sub air system to dry them out a bit. The green are the feature of this course. They are big and have large slopes on them.
This has become a course for the bigger hitters although with no more rain in the forecast this week that might not be as significant this time. If you are a statistics man then approach shots is the one although more and more often putting is becoming a key feature for the winner of the tournament. There are near enough no flat lies on this golf course so keep an eye on the players who can be creative and shape their shots as players will need to move the ball both ways at times.
The Field
Given the current split in the world of golf the majors are the only times that all of the stars of the sport tee it up in the same tournament so for the first time this year truly everyone who is anyone in the game of golf will be taking their shot at the opening major of the campaign. Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion in the field and he leads an American challenge which contains Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay among each other.
There is always a strong European challenge on this tournament where all the attention will be on Rory McIlroy as he looks to complete the career Grand Slam. Other Europeans with genuine chances here include Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland. The international challenge comes from the likes of Joaquin Niemann, Hideki Matsuyama, Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners and Cameron Smith among others.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler has won this tournament in two of the last three years and he is a 5/1 favourite to win it for a third time in four years. He was in excellent form in the two years that he won this event but that isn’t the case this time around and I never like backing defending champions around here anyway because there is so much attention on his time in the lead up to the event that it is hard to make a successful defence. There is a reason this title hasn’t been defended since 2002 and that might be it. History isn’t on Scheffler’s side.
Rory McIlroy makes the latest attempt to land the Grand Slam this week and he is 13/2 to do exactly that. McIlroy has a solid record around here but he has two top fives in the last six years and he has finished outside the top 20 in the other four starts so he is a little all or nothing but for this price not quite all enough. I’m sure he’ll land this title at some point but the days where I can convince myself to get on him to do it have long since passed.
Collin Morikawa is a two-time major winner but he hasn’t got his hands on this one yet. He is 14/1 to put that right this time around and having finished in the top 10 of the tournament in each of the last three years there is plenty of evidence that he is getting to grips with this course and you would imagine with his pristine iron game that he would land this title at some point. He has upset the media in the last couple of weeks though and with the added scrutiny in that department in tournaments of this kind that does put me off a touch.
Jon Rahm is the only other player in the field who is shorter than 18/1 to win the tournament. You can back the Spaniard who won around here in 2023 at 16/1. There is the question about whether someone from LIV can win this tournament but Bryson DeChambeau won the US Open last year so we can largely answer that question. This course sets up well for Rahm and LIV players have been active recently so it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Rahm lands this title but I think value is better elsewhere.
Main Bets
Joaquin Niemann has been catching my eye on the LIV Tour this season and there is no reason why the Chilean can’t go well here. Being away from the PGA Tour spotlight might help him when he comes to majors and he is in here off the back of a special invite and will probably be keen to repay that invitation with a strong showing. Niemann won in Adelaide and Singapore on the LIV Tour and he won the Saudi Invitational on the Asian Tour at the back end of last year beating Cameron Smith and Caleb Surratt and he has a whole bunch of top 10 finishes worldwide over the last 12 months or so. I think he is a little under the radar here with other LIV players more high profile and I expect a decent run. Niemann has a mixed record around here but that is largely because one round gets the better of him. In perfect conditions this week I fancy him to put four rounds together.
Russell Henley has always been a golfer who flatters to deceive when I’ve been on him in the past but after his win at Bay Hill last month I think he has to be backed here. He has been a weird breed over the last few years. He has had years where they putter has been perfect but he lost ground in the long game and then vice versa but this year everything seems to be working. You don’t win around Bay Hill otherwise and he has to be a serious runner here. He was T4 here two years ago and has a couple of other top 15 finishes but hasn’t won a tournament of the Arnold Palmer on arrival here before. The American looks a great price and a fantastic bet to me.
Outsiders
It is really hard to leave the former champion Patrick Reed out of the equation this week. He is something of a course specialist with three other top 10 finishes and a T12 in the last five years and he arrives here in decent form. He was a runner up in Macau on the Asian Tour two starts ago and landed a top 10 in Miami last week on the LIV Tour. He also has a couple of top 10 finishes on the DP World Tour in decent events and one or two other solid showings on the LIV Tour. It all tells us that Reed is striking the ball nicely and with a skill set that suits this place perfectly I’ll add him to the team this week.
The other player I’ll go with is the man who will undoubtedly be a popular bet in the first round leader market in Justin Rose. Rose has an exceptional record around here with six top 10 finishes having come second twice and he has another five top 20 finishes here too. You would think that his best days are behind him but he arrives here with top 10 finishes at Pebble Beach and Bay Hill. He is a player who now manages his schedule to peak for these events and there isn’t a millimetre of this course that Rose doesn’t know. Usually it is the putter which denies Rose around here so it is to his advantage that he is ranked 16 in the strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this season. We might only be playing for place money but with no genuine standout candidate this year I’ll play Rose and see if he can do a Willett nine years on.
Tips
Back J.Niemann to win The Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Henley to win The Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Bet 365 (1/5 1-8)
Back P.Reed to win The Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back J.Rose to win The Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
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