The PGA Tour season ends this week when the Tour Championship takes place as the leading 30 players of the year head to East Lake in Atlanta to battle it out for the $25m prize and the FedExCup trophy.
Viktor Hovland ran off with the bounty last year and the Norwegian has made it through to attempt to successfully defend the title but he is further down the field than a year ago. 29 other players are all looking for the week of their lives.
Recent Winners
2023 – Viktor Hovland
2022 – Rory McIlroy
2021 – Patrick Cantlay
2020 – Dustin Johnson
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Tiger Woods
2017 – Xander Schauffele
2016 – Rory McIlroy
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Billy Horschel
The Course
As ever we go to East Lake Country Club to determine the latest multi-millionaire in the sport. We’ve had a different mix of courses in the play-offs so far. The trend of the playoff events so far have been a tougher setup than before and we’re not going to get any different here. We are back to ball striking purity and a solid test of all departments of the game on a track that will see good shots rewarded but bad ones penalised.
The caveat to all that is that the course has undergone a complete revamp since Hovland holed the winning putt. The course has been extended to 7,490 yards and is now a par 71 with one of the holes extended to a par five having previously played as a par four. The greens are a little bit bigger than before but we are going to get a tough test of golf that is largely the same as before only with a much different look to it. Stick with ball strikers.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler holds a two shot lead going into the final tournament and he is 23/20 to go on and claim the FedExCup from here. The caveat to that is he was in the same position last year and failed to get the job done and the year before that he was in a positive position to win it only to succumb to Rory McIlroy so while he merits being the favourite with the lead that he has there are reasons to oppose him, although the course being new for almost everyone might further enhance his chances.
Xander Schauffele won this tournament in 2017 when the event was different to how it is now. He has an excellent around here but it has to be said that was before the complete revamp of the course so it will be interesting to see if he has as good a showing on the new layout. He is 12/5 to come out on top and you get the feeling that with his East Lake vibes he has Scottie Scheffler exactly where he wants him. Just two shots ahead and alongside him in the opening round where he can put some pressure on. He feels like he’ll be hard to stop.
Hideki Matsuyama is 14/1 to win the FedExCup from here. He will start on seven under par, three back from Scheffler but the big problem to overcome when backing him is he pulled out after 18 holes at Castle Pines last week but the week prior to that he won the St Jude tournament so it might be that he was just saving himself for a crack at this with the likelihood that he wouldn’t have got any closer to Scheffler had he played the full 72 holes. He is a danger if he is fully fit as he is in great form.
Ludvig Aberg is the 20/1 fourth favourite to win the FedExCup. He begins the week five back and had this have been last year when he was on debut I would have really disliked him because experience was a huge thing but now that the revamp has changed everything it might be that the Swede has timed his debut to perfection. He has the length needed to make mincemeat of the par 5s and his all-round game is pretty good. Giving Scheffler a five shot headstart isn’t ideal but there are worse bets going around.
FedExCup Betting
As you would expect, the FedExCup market is dominated by the front two on the leaderboard but one of those is 23/20 and the other is 12/5 yet Keegan Bradley is only four and two shots behind the pair after winning last week and he is 35/1 to take them both down. It might be that Scheffler and Schauffele are too good to reel in but the discrepancy in the prices is a little too large to me when you consider a birdie-bogey swing early in the first round and Bradley is level with Schauffele.
Bradley opened around here with a 63 last year and probably should have gone on and contended a lot more than he did. If he had a disadvantage in the past then it was probably on the greens but they are new for everyone this week and with that in mind I think the man carrying the most momentum into the tournament with him might be the one to be on. Hovland won the BMW Championship and then took down the FedExCup last year and from two shots worse off I’ll pay to see if Bradley can follow in his footsteps.
72 Hole Betting
There is a market for the 72 hole betting this week as well which is basically the tournament as if everyone started on level par as they would in a regular event. I have to say usually my go to man here is Xander Schauffele but he is usually further down the field and needing to score well to move up the leaderboard. Now he has one man to focus on initially and doesn’t need to take untold risks that others might take in the hope that the reward propels them up the leaderboard.
Chris Kirk has been hanging on to get into this week ever since he opened the season with a win and he has made it in on level par so he has nothing to lose and can go at the course in a bid to score well. He was born in Atlanta and went to the University of Georgia so this is something of a home game for him which might be significant. Kirk arrives here off the back of a top 10 finish last week and with everyone having to get used to the new layout a straight hitter who putts well could surprise a few and get enough of a score to put a challenge in over the 72 hole market at 66/1 given that he starts the week with winning the big bounty as a bit of a pipedream unless he scores fantastically.
Tips
Back K.Bradley to win FedExCup (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
Back C.Kirk to win Tour Championship 72 Holes (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
