Tour de France Stage 10 comes after the first rest day of the 2016 race. After 3 days on the Pyrennes mountains the riders deserve a break.
A big well done to Adam Yates (Orica) for his ride on stage 9. In a weekend of British sporting excellence, I think this might have been the best performance of all. I really thought he would struggle to stay with the GC riders, but he led them all home on the final climb.
Stage 10 – The Profile
Stage 10 sees the riders leave the Pyrenees. The days racing is 197 kms from Escaldes-Engordany to Revel.
The stage starts with a punishing Category 1 climb to Port d’Envalira (2408 metres above sea level). The riders contesting the KOTM classification will attack for points.
The descent off the mountain is about 45 kms long and takes the riders into a flatter remainder of the stage.
The breakaway riders should hold a decent gap until deep into the stage. Expect Sky to get some help from the sprinters teams and teams that don’t yet have a stage win. The final 15 kms of the stage features a short category 3 climb of 1.6kms (6.6% average gradient). The top of the climb is reached with 7kms to the finish. The puncher type of riders could try to escape on this climb and hold off the peloton in the finale.
It is possible that a breakaway goes again tomorrow but I favour the sprint teams taking control. The number of stages that they can contest the win is diminishing rapidly and they won’t want to miss out on Tuesday.
Who will revel in Revel?
The favourite for stage 10 is Peter Sagan (Tinkoff). This is the sort of stage he has won in the past. He is looking to retake the lead in the Green Jersey classification so you can expect him to be aggressive. Sagan was in the break on Stage 9 and easily won the intermediate sprint, as none of his rivals in the classification were able to join the breakaway. He is priced in the 5.0-6.0 range for stage 10 so you can utilise the EW bet.
The other 4 most prominent sprinters in this years race also feature high in the bookmakers stage odds.
Second favourite for victory in stage 10 is Bryan Coquard (Direct Energie) at 10.0-13.0. German duo Andre Griepel (Lotto-Soudal) and Marcel Kittel (Etixx-Quickstep) are priced in the 15.0 range. Green Jersey leader Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) is available at 19.0.
The fact the main climb comes so early in the stage and the late category is only 1 miles in length should mean that all 5 should be in contention. Cavendish has such a high price because the fear is he will struggle on that final category 3 climb. I’m not so sure and 19.0-21.0 is a huge price for a rider that has won three sprint finishes in this race. Cavendish is definitely worth consideration with a small EW bet at that price.
Of the other three, Griepel has struggled somewhat in this years race. He does get over the lumpy stuff better than Kittel or Cavendish though. If those two did struggle up the category 3 climb then Griepel has a decent shout at winning the stage. Coquard has a couple of 2 places in the 2016 race but he does handle the shorter punchy types of climb fairly well. I can easily see him being in the sprint for the line.
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) and Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimenion Data) are two other riders that should be considered. The finale is similar to some of the One Day Classics that each of these riders do so well on. If Cavendish does struggle on the final climb then EBH is a great foil. He is quick in his own right and as 23.0 has EW value. He will feature in my head-to-head tips below.
I would have liked the chances of Julian Alaphilippe (Etixx-Quickstep) here but I wonder whether the 3 days of climbing has dented his chances. This is his first Grand Tour and he struggled more than expected in the Pyrenees. If he has recovered a price in the 21.0-23.0 range is worth a small EW bet.
The time gaps at the top of the GC see the top 10 within one minute of the lead. Seconds are vital and I think the bookmakers are massively underestimating the chances of one rider. Dan Martin (Etixx-Quickstep) is third overall only 19 seconds behind race leader Chris Froome. He can absolutely fly up climbs like the category 3 with 7 kms to go. I can see him trying to attack. If it were to stick he could stay away on the downhill run to the finish where with the bonus seconds he could take the race lead. You can back him at 301.0 YES 301.0! To me this is worth a very small EW bet.
Tour de France Stage 10 – Tips
NOTE – I am using Paddy Power for all of my stage winner bets because they are paying out EW on 5 places for stage 10.
Back Peter Sagan to win stage 10 with a 1.5/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 5) at 5.00 with Paddy Power. PLACED
Back Mark Cavendish to win stage 10 with a 1.0/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 5) at 19.00 with Paddy Power.
Back Dan Martin to win stage 10 with a 0.5/10 EW stake (1/4 odds top 5) at 301.00 with Paddy Power.
Back them all here:
Back Edvald Boasson Hagen to beat Jasper Stuyven with a 2.5/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power. WON