Tour de France Stage 2
Stage 2 of the 2016 Tour de France is a little different to the first stage. The terrain is similar throughout the day but the category 3 climb at the end means that the Yellow Jersey is highly likely to change hands at the end of the day.
Congratulations to Mark Cavendish for winning stage 1 – he has now worn the leaders jersey in all 3 Grand Tours and made a mockery of my Stage 1 prediction!
The Profile
Stage 2 is 182kms in length and has a low rolling sort of profile. The stage starts in Saint-Lo and features 3 category 4 climbs in the first 50kms.
Expect a breakaway featuring the KOTM jersey wearer to go quite early. The points on offer are small but that top spot on the podium at the end of the stage is a boon for rider, team and sponsors alike.
The GC teams will be more prominent at the front of the race on Stage 2. They know the final section of the stage, the category 3 Glacerie climb into the finish at Cherbourg-en-Cotentin is the key part of the stage. There will be attacks from the GC contenders and some of the Ardennes classics type of rider – those that are explosive on shorter steep climbs like this one. Don’t be surprised to see Peter Sagan feature too (see below).
We can expect a battle, like in stage 1 but with a different set of riders.
Stage 2 Challengers
All of the GC riders will be in contention for stage 2 honours. None of them will want to lose any time on their rivals but I think it is a) too early for them to show their true form and b) I don’t think the climb really suits any of them.
The top contenders for Stage 2 honours are the Ardennes classics riders – Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin and Julian Alaphilippe the main threats.
Valverde is the master of this type of climb – he has won countless one day classics and Grand Tour stages on similar terrain. Valverde keeps managing to prevent Father Time catching up with him. He will be tasked with keeping Nairo Quintana near the front of the race but I feel he will be given some freedom to challenge for the stage win. As it stands he is a super price at 13.0 and a solid EW selection.
The Etixx-Quick Step riders have both impressed me greatly this year. Both of them have the power and explosion to win Stage 2. Dan Martin has improved this season – with a great showing in the Criterium de Dauphine finishing third overall behind Chris Froome. Martin can be backed at odds of 23.0 as I write this – might be worth a small bet for you as an EW selection.
As you will know from my Pre-race Betting Preview, I like Julian Alaphilippe as a rider and like him a lot. He has individual stage wins, an overall week long stage race win (Tour of California), impressive showings in One Day Classics, ITTs, sprints and mountain stages. He has the world at his feet. I think he will go very close to the win in Stage 2 and could be one of the rare riders in their first Grand Tour to take the leaders jersey! The bookmakers like him too and he is joint favourite at 6.00.
Peter Sagan (Tinkoff) is joint-favourite for stage 2 with Alaphilippe. Sagan has become a more rounded rider this year and his climbing has improved a lot. I think Stage 2 is one he will be targeting and a win would be his first here since 2013! It is not often that on a stage where the terrain suits Sagan he is priced this high – 6.0. Back him to WIN!
Michael Matthews (Orica) currently sits in the third favourite slot at 9.0 but I cannot back him because he has not shown me the form this year to suggest he can win a TdF stage, especially one from a large group.
Of the rest Edvald Boasson Hagen (Dimension Data), Simon Gerrans (Orica) and Tony Gallopin (Lotto Soudal) all sit in the 18.0-22.0 range. They will like their chances but I cannot see them winning this stage against the riders mentioned above both on form and because they are not quite as explosive.
Jesus Herrada (Movistar) won a stage at the Criterium de Dauphine 2016 with a stunning sprint on a short steep climb. This stage may not be long enough for him to challenge for victory but at odds of 34.0 he too could be worth a small EW bet.
Tour de France Stage 2 Tips
WON – Back Peter Sagan to win Stage 2 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.00 with Paddy Power.
PLACED – Back Alejandro Valverde to win Stage 2 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.00 with Paddy Power.
Back them both here:
