What a superb stage 20. I had three of my four tips for the stage in the front breakaway group and the stage gave me a big winner at 66/1. Thank you Jon Izaguirre and thank you to the rainfall that kept the GC riders away from the front of the race. Tour de France Stage 21 is the finale of the 2016 race. This is the ‘parade’ stage where the riders celebrate completing the course with the classification winners getting a day in the limelight.
Congratulations to all of the finishers and the classification winners.
Stage 21 – The Profile
Stage 21 is the traditional finale of the TDF. The stage starts in Chantilly and is 113 kms long. It will be very slow until it reaches Paris where the circuits around the Arc de Triomphe begin.
The stage is sometimes called the unofficial ‘sprinters world championship’. All of the sprinters in the race want to win in Paris. Of course the fastest sprinter in the race Mark Cavendish, retired to focus on the Olympic Games.
Riders will attempt to break clear from the peloton on the circuits in Paris but they rarely succeed. The sprinter teams tend to comfortably control stage 21 of every TDF. The real battle will be the final 5kms where there will be teams jockeying for position. There is a strong likelihood of at least one crash in the finale.
The five classification battles are settled – Yellow, Green, Polkadot and White Jerseys and the Team competition. These will not change in Paris.
Who will be partying in Paris?
The stage will be won by a sprinter. The question is which one? Obvious stage favourite Mark Cavendish is not in the race any more. That leaves a number of riders in contention – some looking for their first win of the 2016 race.
Stage Winner
Remember the sprinters will be knackered after 20 days of racing and two huge mountain ranges.
Marcel Kittel (Etixx Quickstep) is favourite at 2.25-2.40. He is fast and has won a stage already. However, he has also failed to feature in a number of sprints and I cannot back him at this low a price.
Andre Griepel (Lotto Soudal) is looking for his first stage win. Griepel will be disappointed with his returns in the race and would love to win on the Champs Elysees tomorrow. You can back Griepel at odds of around 5.50 and I think is a better shout.
Peter Sagan (Tinkoff) has arguably been the rider of the race in a close battle with Chris Froome and Adam Yates. Sagan has won his fifth consecutive Green Jersey, plus the overall combativity award. He has excelled in all terrains and won stages, where in the past he would finish 2nd. He is trying to set a record points score haul in a single race and a stage win would help him achieve this. You can back Sagan at odds of around 6.00. I think he might have more left in his legs than any of his sprint rivals so this could be a great selection.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha), Bryan Coquard (Direct Energie) and Jon Degenkolb (Giant) have all had second place stage finishes in this race. Each would love to win in Paris and I think of the three I like the chances of Coquard the most. He is backable at odds in the 12.0-14.0 range so a small EW bet could be an option.
I don’t think anyone else is really in the mix unless there is a crash in the final set of corners before the launch onto the Champs Elysees.
Head-to-head
There is one head-to-head bet that I like a lot. In his two previous race victories Chris Froome has linked arms with his team-mates to cross the finish line in Paris. This will be repeated tomorrow as Froome shares his success with the team. This means, for once that Sky won’t worry where he finishes in the peloton. they will cross the line towards the back of the bunch. This should mean an easy head-to-head success backing someone against Froome. The bet I like is for Nairo Quintana to beat Froome in Paris. Of course it is not ‘the’ victory Quintana nor many cycling fans predicted pre-race. You can back Quintana at 2.00 and those are pretty decent odds.
Thank you for reading my TDF Betting Previews! I will return for the 2016 Vuelta Espana 🙂
Tour de France Stage 21 – Tips
Stage winner
WON – Back Andre Griepel to win Stage 21 with a 1.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 5.50 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Griepel here:
PLACED – Back Peter Sagan to win Stage 21 with a 1.50/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 8.00 with Ladbrokes.
Bet on Sagan here:
Head-to-head
WON – Back Nairo Quintana to beat Chris Froome for a 3.5/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Quintana here:
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