Amstel Gold Race is the first of the three Ardennes Classics races that take place in a week. It will be raced on Sunday 16th April – marking the 52nd time the race has been held. Amstel Gold Race will be quickly followed by La Flèche Wallonne (19th April) and Liège – Bastogne – Liège (23rd April).
The Ardennes Classics races are suited to a different set of riders than the 5 One Day Classics that have been raced over the past few weeks.
Amstel Gold Race 2017 – The Course
Unusually, for a race in the Netherlands, the course is quite hilly, taking place in Limburg. For the 2017 race the organisers have significantly changed the route of the race. In previous years the Cauberg climb was raced over 4 times as the main part of the race featured 4 circuits. The final ascent traditionally came with 1.8kms to go and led to a lone rider or small group of riders contesting the win.
For some reason the race organisers felt this didn’t make the best spectacle as only puncheur types could win. I’m not sure I agree and to be fair the strong powerful riders have just had a series of 5 races that only they could win. Anyway, now the final ascent of the Cauberg comes with 19kms to go. Following the Cauberg the final circuit takes in the Geulhemmerberg and Bemelerberg climbs. Each are around 1km at 4.5% – not the steepest hills and ones which the sprinters should be able to crest in a decent position. From the top of the Bemelerberg there is 7.3 kms to the finish line. This should enable the teams that still have sprinters in contention to organise a bunch sprint of sorts.
I will post the recent history below, like always, but it will have little bearing on this years race.
Amstel Gold Race 2017 – Recent History
The winners of the last six Amstel Gold Races were:
- 2011 – Philippe Gilbert (BEL) – Omega Pharma-Lotto
- 2012 – Enrico Gasperotto (ITA) – Astana
- 2013 – Roman Kreuziger (CZE) – Saxo-Tinkoff
- 2014 – Philippe Gilbert (BEL) – BMC Racing
- 2015 – Michal Kwiatkowski (POL) – Etixx-Quick-Step
- 2016 – Enrico Gasperotto (ITA) – Wanty-Groupe Goubert
Dutch riders have the most wins at Amstel Gold Race with 17 victories. Belgian riders with 10 wins are the only other nation in double figures.
Amstel Gold Race 2017 – The Favourites
This ‘favourites’ group includes a number of sprinters and a bunch of puncheurs. I think the top of the betting market is interesting. The favourite is available on Wednesday morning at 6.0. This reflects the nature of the changes to the route for the 2017 race. If last years course had been kept I feel the favourite would have been in the 3.75-4.25 range. Of course this uncertainty makes tipping a little trickier BUT also gives us some value that wasn’t available in previous years.
NOTE – Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) will be missing the Ardennes Classics due to a knee injury.
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) is the favourite for Amstel Gold Race 2017 at 6.0-7.5. Matthews best results in 2017 include 7th at Gent-Wevelgem and a stage win at the Tour of the Basque Country. The latter result is probably indicative of his chances here. That stage was on terrain similar to that in Amstel Gold Race. That day’s racing was up and down and ended in a sprint from an elite group. Matthews has history at this race – 3rd in 2015 and 5th in 2016. I really think the changes in the end of the stage suit him well.
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) is on incredible form winning three week long stage races in Spain against excellent fields. Valverde is almost nailed on to win La Flèche Wallonne and possibly Liège-Bastogne–Liège too! Winning Amstel Gold Race would give him victory in all three Ardennes Classics. The 2016 finale suited him better. However, Valverde can sprint from a small group and he will be a demon descender in the last 7.5kms once the climb of the Bemelerberg is completed. Can he beat sprinters like Matthews and a couple of others I will mention below? Maybe, he can given his results in 2017. A small EW at 9.0 has some value but I’m not 100% on him here.
Philippe Gilbert (Quick-Step Floors) has re-found the form of his youth this season. His win at Tour of Flanders was epic! Gilbert leads a powerful team here and is probably their best shot at success. I feel for him to win the peloton would need to be split to pieces – possibly on the final ascent of the Cauberg. I can’t see him winning a sprint, even from a small group. A late breakaway is probably his best hope but I think he will be closely marked. Odds of 9.0 are not for me.
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) has a couple of impressive wins in 2017 at Strade Bianche and Milan-San Remo. In the first he rode away formt he field and in the second won a sprint from Peter Sagan and Julian Alaphilippe. Like Valverde I feel the other two Ardennes Classics races offer a better chance at the win for Kwiatkowski. The final phases of each of those races are tougher than Amstel Gold Race and that will suit him more. 11.0 looks light to me.
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) is the One Day Classics rider of 2017 with 4 wins – Paris-Roubaix, Gent-Wevelgem, E3 Prijs Vlaanderen and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. In addition to this he has two wins in stage races and two One Day Classics 2nd place finishes. This is probably the last Classic that he can win in 2017 because he won’t be explosive enough to compete in the other Ardennes Classics. Odds of 15.0 are tempting as a small EW bet for GVA to win 3 Sundays in a row!
Next come two sprinters Fabio Felline (Trek Segafredo) and Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida). Felline has been impressive for parts of a number of the One Day Classics in 2017 but only has a 4th place at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad to show for it. He has shown an ability to climb well enough to stay in contention. Felline is quick and a real danger from a small group in a sprint. Odds in the 19.0 range have great EW potential.
Colbrelli was 3rd at Amstel Gold Race in 2016 – winning the sprint finish behind the front two. Colbrelli showed he had his climbing legs that day and comes here in decent form. He was 10th at Tour of Flanders, won a stage at Paris-Nice winning a sprint in tough conditions and was 7th at E3 Prijs Vlaanderen. If he holds that form this weekend it wouldn’t surprise me if he won Amstel Gold Race. On Wednesday Colbrelli impressively won De Brabantse Pijl – the warm-up race for Amstel Gold Race. Before this race Colbrelli’s odds for Amstel Gold Race were as high as 21.0 but the bookmaker offering those odds (SkyBet) removed them about midday Wednesday. Now he rivals Matthews as race favourite!
Amstel Gold Race 2017 – Outsiders
Enrico Gasparotto (Bahrain-Merida) won here in 2016 and 2012. Amstel Gold Race is the venue of his best results but the course changes are not ideal for him. He goes better on the steeper climbs and the switch to a flatter finish eliminates the advantages he had over many in the field. 19.0 is too short for me given the final.
Simon Gerrans (Orica-Scott) and the profile of this race look like an ideal match. Gerrans has been 3rd here three times (2011, 2013 & 2014) but hasn’t looked like emulating that type of result so far in 2017. Gerrans was decent in Australia in January but has little of note to show in Europe so far this season. 19.0 looks woefully short.
Ben Swift (UAE Team Emirates) should be a rider that has a greater chance of success with the race route changes. Swift struggles on the shorter steep climbs like the Cauberg but is okay on the hills with lower gradient. If he can get over in the final climb of the Cauberg close to the front he has a chance in the sprint. His odds range from 41.0-81.0 – if you can get on the 81.0 then there is value.
Pter Vakoc (Quick-Step Floors) is a little bit of an under-the-radar type. His best One Day Classic result so far was 5th in Strade-Bianche in 2016. That result showed that Vakoc can climb. He won De Brabantse Pijl in 2016 but that is a level below the Classics. At 24 he is one for the future for Quick-Step Floors but given their results in 2017 it wouldn’t surprise to see him breakthrough here. Vakoc is seen as an all-rounder type that can sprint. He finished second to Colbrelli at De Brabantse Pijl on Wednesday. If I can find 4 places I’m tempted for a small EW bet at 29.0-34.0.
Tim Wellens (Lotto Soudal) can be backed at 19.0-21.0 for the win. I just cannot see it happening. Wellens is a stage racer that specialises in winning from the break. You can guarantee he will go off the front at some point in the race but I don’t see him winning against this field.
Rui Costa (UAE Team Emirates) was brilliant in February and March but is a little like Valverde and Kwiatkowski above in that the tougher the terrain the better. Look for him to be a threat at Liège-Bastogne–Liège. I’m not interested even at 51.0
Nathan Haas (Dimension Data) was impressive on the Australian leg of the UCI calendar back in January but has no top 10s in Europe so far. The course changes give him a better chance of being in contention in 2017. He can climb well enough to stay towards the front. Does he have the speed to beat a Matthews or Colbrelli in a sprint? No so not for me at 67.0
Bryan Coquard (Direct-Energie) has stage wins in two Spanish week-long races in 2017. The thing is his team were saying positive things about him challenging for One Day Classics and Paris-Nice wins. So far he has fallen flat on his face in those races in 2017. Some of that was down to bad luck but more often than not Coquard was dropped from the front group. He will hope to make amends here but he hasn’t done anything in my eyes to be amongst the favourites at 12.0.
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Amstel Gold Race 2017 – Tips
I’m going with the top of the market on Sunday.
Bet on Michael Matthews to win Amstel Gold Race with a 1.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 6.5 with Bet365.
Back Sonny Colbrelli to win Amstel Gold Race with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 7.5 with Bet365.
Bet on Greg Van Avermaet to win Amstel Gold Race with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 16.0 with Bet365.
Back Alejandro Valverde to win Amstel Gold Race with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 9.0 with Bet365.
Bet on all four here:
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