Amstel Gold Race is the first of the 3 Ardennes Classics along with La Flèche Wallonne and Liège – Bastogne – Liège, to be raced over 8 days taking place on Sunday 17th April, 2016. This is the 51st edition of the Amstel Gold Race.
The Course
Unusually, for a race in the Netherlands, the course is quite hilly, taking place in Limburg. The race starts in Maastricht and covers roughly 55km before turning into a series of circuits with the Cauberg climb raced up 4 times in all.
At the culmination of 250kms racing the finish line is reached in Valkenburg. This comes following the final ascent of the Cauberg, with its top at 1,8 km from the finish. The steepness of the climb late on in the stage is usually the decisive launching point for a rider to win. The final run-in to the line is predominantly flat with a slight rise in the last few hundred metres and it is almost impossible to catch a rider who has broken clear.
Recent History
The winners of the last five editions of the Amstel Gold Race were:
- 2011 – Philippe Gilbert (BEL) – Omega Pharma-Lotto
- 2012 – Enrico Gasperotto (ITA) – Astana
- 2013 – Roman Kreuziger (CZE) – Saxo-Tinkoff
- 2014 – Philippe Gilbert (BEL) – BMC Racing
- 2015 – Michal Kwiatkowski (POL) – Etixx-Quick-Step
Type of Riders suited to this race
The Ardennes Classics suit a slightly different type of rider than the one day races of the previous 4 weeks. Riders that do well in the Ardennes Classics are the punchy riders who can quickly climb the short sharp steep climbs that litter these courses. Their acceleration usually distances them from the stronger riders who have featured the previous two Sundays in the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix.
In the last 5 years none of the winners of Amstel Gold Race, La Flèche Wallonne or Liège – Bastogne – Liège have won either the Tour of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix.
Riders who will feature
The clear favourites
This year Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde are not riding Amstel Gold Race 2016 and contenders from previous years such as Joaquim Rodriguez don’t seem to have the right form to challenge for victory. This leaves three main contenders.
Michael Matthews (Orica GreenEDGE) is the favourite for the Amstel Gold Race – somewhat surprisingly! Matthews finished in third place in 2015 in his only podium thus far in any of the Ardennes Classics races. He has a history of doing well in uphill sprints in Grand Tours with finishes similar to this one. His 2016 form is really good and he is targeting these 3 races. I just don’t see him winning.
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) – Kwiatkowski is the defending champion with an impressive recent record in all three Ardennes classics. In 2014 he finished 5th in this race and 3rd in both La Flèche Wallonne and Liège – Bastogne – Liège. Already won a one day race this year the E3 Harelbeke, where he impressively out-sprinted Peter Sagan. The course suits him perfectly and he is an expert on these short steep climbs. In my view he should be the favourite and become the second man to go back-to-back this century. PLUS – IMPORTANTLY he beat Matthews in a sprint to win in 2015
Philippe Gilbert (BMC Racing) – won the Ardennes Classics triple crown in 2011 when he was virtually unstoppable in this type of race. Gilbert also won here in 2010 and 2014 and is the modern day master of this type of race. In 2016 his form isn’t quite there. I don’t think he has the explosiveness to finish in the top 3.
The Rest
Simon Gerrans (Orica GreenEDGE) – 3rd in 2014 and winner of Liège – Bastogne – Liège the same year. He will be riding in support for Matthews so I do not see him as being in with a chance of winning.
Rui Costa (Lampre Merida) – 4th in 2015 and 4th in Liège – Bastogne – Liège in 2014 and can get over the climbs in this course. He is my outsider pick.
Samuel Sanchez (BMC Racing) – Sanchez had a mountain stage win in Tour of the Basque Country so we know he can climb and has good form. Again, similar to Gerrans, he will be riding for another team-mate so he will not finish on the podium.
Tips
Back Michal Kwiatkowski win Amstel Gold race for the second time. Back him for a 2.0/10 E/W (1/4 of the odds for top 3) stake at 6.50 with Boylesports:
Place your bet here:
Back Rui Costa with a 1.0/10 stake at 27.0 E/W with Netbet (1/4 odds for top 3).
Place your bet here:
