The Critérium du Dauphiné Prologue starts the week long stage race on Sunday 5th June. The prologue will be a short, steep and exciting individual time trial!
The Profile
As we can see with the profile – the prologue is very short at 3.9kms. What makes this unusual is that it is straight up the Le Mont Chery climb. This is a nasty steep and difficult start to the race. It will suit the best climbers in the race and might also suit the punchers – the riders who can climb the shorter steeper mountains with aplomb.
The majority of the climb averages above 9% (the black sections on the profile) and the average climb gradient is a nasty 9.7%. There really is no time to settle into the mountain – it is up from the start.
The Contenders
Similar to the overall pricing there are two riders who dominate the markets – Alberto Contador (current favourite) and Chris Froome. They are likely to be in contention for overall victory in a weeks time and won’t want to drop time in the prologue. The profile suits Contador a little better than Froome. Contador is a slightly more explosive climber especially on shorter climbs. I would be surprised if either finished outside the top 6 but don’t think either will win. In fact neither may want the win – because that will force them to defend the lead all week, tiring themselves and their teams.
Joint third favourites are Richie Porte and Joaquim Rodriguez at around 10.0. The latter has a great record on this type of climb BUT is probably the weakest rider against the clock in the top ten in the betting market. I cannot back him because of the latter. Porte is the opposite – fine against the clock but can struggle on the steepest climbs. Again I cannot bet on him.
My first choice is Thibaut Pinot. He has two mountain stage wins in ITTs this year and has the form to go very close here. It would be something of a coup for FDJ to lead this race with Pinot – French Rider, French Team & French Race. He is priced around the 12.0-13.0 mark and is a great value at this price.
Fabio Aru is another rider I see placing inside the top 10 but maybe not winning. He will be better a better bet in stages 5-7.
The Team Sky triumverate of Sergio Henao, Mikel Landa and Wout Poels all feature in the top 12-15 of the betting markets. All three have the climbing ability to do really well but only Poels really excels in time-trials. He is the best value of the three at 34.0 and is worth a smaller EW bet.
Etixx have two riders – Julian Alaphilippe and Dan Martin who are suited to the course. Both are punchers who are decent against the clock. Of the two I think the bookies have it right in offering a shorter price on Alaphilippe but I think a top 5 would be a super result.
Of the rest Roman Bardet is an interesting price at 51.0. He can definitely climb but is only a so-so TT rider.
Critérium du Dauphiné Prologue Bets
Back Thibaut Pinot to win the Prologue with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
Back Wout Poels to win the Prologue with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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