Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 1 is a far cry from the terrain of the prologue as the route takes the riders away from the mountains and into flatter roads for the finale.
The Route
The 1st stage is the longest of the race at 186kms. The first half is rolling hills/low mountains and includes 3 category 4 climbs.
I expect a break to form early in the stage of around 5-6 riders. They will be allowed a decent amount of leeway but the second, flatter part of the stage should be controlled by the three teams with top sprinters in the race – Katusha, Giant-Alpecin and Cofidis.
The break should be reeled in within the last 15kms and then the sprinters will be locked in a positioning battle as the race enters the finale in Saint-Vulbas.
Alexander Kristof vs John Degenkold vs Nacer Bouhanni
Alexander Kristoff has a strong team Katusha here to support him in the aim of winning at least one stage. He is current favourite at around 3.25. Kristoff probably has been a little disappointing thus far in 2016. His wins are down compared to the same stage in 2015, but he is coming of a sprint victory over Peter Sagan in the Tour in California. I would be a little wary of his status as favourite in stage 1.
John Degenkolb was one of the Giant-Alpecin riders involved in the horrific off-season road accident in Spain where they were hit by a car. His season is only just starting. He has only competed in a handful of races so far and has little form. He is third favourite around the 8.0 mark but I think he is unbackable because of the limited guide to his racing fitness.
Nacer Bouhanni is my choice as stage 1 winner. He has the best form of the 3 with a number of wins and also decent places in some of the tough spring classics. He is very fast and can be a serious threat to the big three sprinters – Marcel Kittel, Andre Griepel and Mark Cavendish on any day. I think at 4.00 he is a value selection.
In terms of EW selections I would suggest Moreno Hofland as the rider with the best value at around the 20.0 mark. Were Degenkolb not to feature, as I have speculated then there is a stage podium place available. He had 4 top ten finishes in the Giro d’Italia and could be a match for an underpar Degenkolb.
Edvald Boasson Hagen is also available at around the 18.0-20.0 mark. I think he might be a better choice in stage 2 where the terrain will work more in his favour. I’m not sure he can beat Kristoff, Bouhani and one of Degenkolb/Hofland in a more traditional type of flat bunch sprint.
Critérium du Dauphiné Stage 1 Bets
WON – Back Nacer Bouhanni to win stage 1 with a 2.0/10 stake at 4.50 with Paddy Power.
Back Moreno Hofland to win stage 1 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 21.00 with Paddy Power.
Back them both here:
