The Giro d’Italia 2017 starts on Friday 5th May and sees the riders race 21 stages over the following 24 days. Stage one takes place on the picturesque island of Sardinia with a road stage. The race finishes in Milan on Sunday 28th May with an Individual Time Trial.
This years race is the 100th running of the Giro d’Italia – the first Grand Tour of the cycling season. I will preview the Maglia Rosa (Pink Jersey) Classification in this post. Later in the week, once the betting markets are live, I will also preview the Sprint, Mountains and Youth Classifications in a separate post.
Giro d’Italia 2017 – The Route
The 21 stages of the 2017 race cover a large part of the country as the route map to the left shows. The first three stages take place on the island of Sardinia. A rest day follows and the riders travel to Sicily for a stage before the race enters the mainland.
Five more stages take place in the south of the country before the riders reach rest day two. Here the riders transfer north for 6 more stages including the first Individual Time Trial.
The final rest day on the 22nd May will be needed as the following five stages (16-20) are brutal. They are all mountain stages and it is here that the race will be decided.
Unusually, for a Grand Tour stage 21, the finale, is an Individual Time Trial. I don’t feel this will have any bearing on the race winner, as one rider will dominate, but it may be key in sorting the podium places.
Giro d’Italia 2017 – The Stages
The table below shows a breakdown of the 21 stages. I have shown them in a table form as a reference point for my pink jersey category preview below.
[supsystic-tables id=’32’]
Giro d’Italia 2017 – Maglia Rosa (Pink Jersey)
The Favourite
There is a clear favourite for the Giro d’Italia 2017 – Nairo Quintana (Movistar). Barring an accident or inclement weather he will win the 2017. Quintana and Chris Froome are the two best Grand Tour riders in the world and Froome isn’t racing in Italy. The course in this years Giro, with the back loaded mountain stages in the final week suits Quintana perfectly. He is one of the top three climbers in the world (Froome and Richie Porte being the others – Porte is also not present here) and that evil third week stretch won’t scare him.
If he stays on the bike he wins the Giro with relative ease. The one concern, and it is minor, is that Quintana is going for the Giro-Tour de France double. An accident or small niggle here might lead to a safety first approach with the Tour in mind in July.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Podium Chasers
Fantasy Cycling – Giro d’Italia 2017 Game
Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) has won here twice – in 2013 and in 2016. The latter featured a ‘miracle’ recovery coming from nowhere to win in the final two mountain stages. Nibali had shown little in 2017 before the Tour of Croatia following his big money offseason move to Bahrain-Merida. Nibali won that race, but it wasn’t against any of his main rivals for the Giro. Nibali is 2nd favourite here at 5.5-7.0. I’m not keen on those odds at all. He has seemed a little dis-interested this season and I like some of his rivals a lot more.
Steven Kruijswijk (Lotto-NL Jumbo) tends to get his best results at the Giro. He was 7th in 2015 and 4th last year. If he continued that progression he would win in 2017! I like Kruijswijk but feel that the field is stronger this year than in 2016. He does climb well and the final week should be good for him. I don’t think he climbs as well as a number of those around him in this group – Landa, Pinot, Yates and Zakarin. A 4th place finish this year would be a great result. Odds of 9.0 do not tempt me.
Geraint Thomas and Mikel Landa lead the Team Sky charge and have been given co-leader status for the Giro. That scares me! I really think they should commit to one rider – probably Landa. Landa was signed before the 2016 season to challenge for this race based on his 3rd place finish in 2015. In that race he was fantastic and arguably the best climber. His 2016 season was marred by injury, poor form and riding in a support role. In the recent Tour of the Alps Landa nabbed a 5th place overall but again was riding as support for a team-mate (Thomas). The final week of the Giro has terrain more suited to Landa – I rate him as a better climber in the high mountains than Thomas.
The flip side is that Thomas is probably a little tougher mentally and a much stronger ITT rider. I think Thomas is best suited as a week-long stage racer and Grand Tour number two. His best Grand Tour finish has been 15th in the 2015 & 2016 TDF. A top 7-8 finish would be a super performance from Thomas here. I think Thomas will have a better fist half of the Giro because the terrain suits him better. My fear is that in this scenario the co-leader designation switches to a sole leader – Thomas. I just can’t back Thomas at 14.0 because of the final week – Landa at 16.0 just about has EW value.
Tom Dumoulin (Sunweb) will target the two ITT’s and a top 10 finish in the 2017 race. Dumoulin is improving all the time and has become a decent Grand Tour climber. My concern is that in stages with multiple category 1 type climbs he will suffer. He may be in the top 6-7 going into that brutal final week but I can see him dropping away on at least one or two of those stages. The Sunweb team isn’t the strongest when it comes to the high mountains – this hurt Dumoulin in the past in a Grand Tour (Vuelta Espana in 2015) and it won’t help here. Odds of 15.0 are too short.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) carries the French hopes in this years Giro. Pinot has promised much in the past but thus far has failed to truly deliver that stunning Grand Tour result. Pinot is one of the better ITT riders amongst the main contenders so he will look to gain time in the two ITT’s. He is also a fabulous descender – using those skills to win races in the past. When everything is right Pinot can also deliver excellent climbing performances. Pinot has strong form – with top three places in stage races (Tour of the Alps and Vuelta a Andalucia).
All of these point to Pinot being a serious podium challenger. But I have some concerns – this is his first Giro and his best Grand Tour finish since 2014 is a 16th in the 2015 TDF. I want to believe in a French Grand Tour victory but I fear it won’t be Pinot here. Odds of 16.0 have some EW value if you are brave.
Adam Yates (Orica-Scott) looks like the best of this group to challenge for a podium spot. He was 4th in last years Tour De France and won the Young Jersey Classification. That was Yate’s big breakthrough. He looked like he belonged in the upper echelon of riders throughout that race. Here he rides as clear team leader on a strong Orica-Scott team. Yates climbs very well, has improved his ITT performance and has a nack of knowing when to attack. I can see him being well in the mix for the runner-up position in this years Giro and am all over 19.0 EW.
Outsiders
Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha) can climb but cannot time trial and is prone to crashing. Zakarin had multiple times in the 2016 Giro – including a huge mountain descent crash that ended his race. I like him to win one of the mountain stages but not challenge for the podium overall. Odds around 23.0 are on the low side.
Bauke Mollema (Trek Segafredo) broke through to the top-level in last years TDF and was involved in ‘the motorbike crash’ on stage 12. Was firmly in the top three postions for a good portion of the 2016 TDF and showed the best climbing of his career. I have a feeling he could well make the top 5 or 6 but feel the podium places are a little out of reach – the two ITT’s will see him lose a little time. Odds of 16.0 don’t tempt.
Bob Jungels (Quick-Step Floors) is given team-leader designation for the first time in a Grand Tour. The concern is can he climb consistently enough to be a contender? I don’t think so and nor do the bookies who offer him at 81.0. He should be okay through the first two weeks of racing but I can see him slipping down the GC in that final week.
David de la Cruz (Quick-Step Floors) is the rider from this category that I like the most. He finished 7th in the 2016 Vuleta Espana with a stage win. This year he won a mountain stage at Paris-Nice and another on the Tour fo the Basque Country (finished 3rd overall too). He is a better climber than Jungels and should show well in week 3. A podium will be unlikely but I’m allowed one piece of folly at high odds and I must say 401.0 is way overpriced.
NOTE – DE LA CRUZ WAS OMITTED FROM THE QUICK-STEP FLOORS TEAM IN THEIR FINAL SELECTION
Tejay Van Garderen (BMC Racing) has long been talked of as the next big American winner. He has two 5th place finishes in the TDF (2012 & 2014) but in recent years his once excellent ITT skills have waned and he always gets dropped in the high mountains. He has been decent this year in the Tour de Romandie but dropped a lot of time to Richie Porte on the queen mountains stage. Quintana and the like will beat him easily here so not for me at 33.0.
Primoz Roglic (Lotto-NL Jumbo) will be the main challenge to Dumoulin in the ITT’s. Roglic has been excellent so far in 2017 winning the Volta ao Algarve and two stages in the Tour fo the Basque Country (including the ITT). He has shown improved climbing form this year but that final week will be a real test. His best Grand Tour result so far was 58th (Giro in 2016). I can see a top 12-15 but no higher.
Rohan Dennis (BMC Racing) is a top ITT rider that is trying to reinvent himself this year as a Grand Tour type of rider. His climbing is better but it’s not up to the level of the top group of riders in this race. Odds of 101.0 look right.
Rui Costa (UAE Emirates) should probably have better Grand Tour results than he has as his high point was an 18th in the 2012 TDF. He can climb as evidenced by winning the Tour de Romandie three times (2012-2014). He is probably a better one week stage race rider than Grand Tour rider. Odds of 201.0 don’t tempt me in the EW market.
Giro d’Italia 2017 – Maglia Rosa Tips
Bet on Nairo Quintana to win the Giro d’Italia with a 4.0/10 stake at 2.10 with Betfred.
Back him here:
Bet on Adam Yates to win the Giro d’Italia with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 21.0 with Bet365.
Back him here:
VOID (SEE ABOVE) – Bet on David de la Cruz to win the Giro d’Italia with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 401.0 with Coral.
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
