Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 11 takes place on Wednesday and could be one for the breakaway. Following Tuesday’s ITT the riders get back to road racing for stage 11. I have a feeling we will see the breakaway win by a decent margin i.e. more than 10 seconds, for the first time in this years Giro.
Tom Dumoulin gave me two wins in two stages with a stunning ITT on Tuesday. As super as Dumoulin rode – Nairo Quintana was the complete opposite. The third week still favours Nairo massively (and bonus seconds may be key) but we have an exciting GC battle now!
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 11 – Stage Profile
Stage 11 is another of those medium length days. The riders will cover 161kms starting in Firenze and finishing in Bagno di Romagna.
Make no mistake this is a hilly stage with 4 classified climbs. They resemble a One Day Classic more than a mountainous Grand Tour stage.
For once the ups and downs are spread throughout the day with two climbs in each half of the stage.
There is a 15km flat section from Firenze then the days climbing begins. The category 2 Passo Della Consuma comes first and is peaked at 31.8kms. A 10 kms descent leads straight onto the category 3 Passo Della Calla. This is peaked at 64.2kms. A longer descent to the 91km point and then its climbing again for the riders.
The top of the Passo Del Carnaio comes at 102.4kms. A short drop to the 108km mark and the riders essentially climb all the way to the 135km point. This is the peak of the final climb of the day the category 2 – Monte Fumaliao. From here the roads to Bagno di Romagna will allow the riders to build a lot of speed as it is descending all the way.
To me this looks like a breakaway type of day. The GC riders will have exerted a lot of energy of stage 9 and 10. The sprinters have no chance of stage success and will be holding back for Thursday’s stage. If the right break forms with no real GC threats then it has the chance to stick. Expect the riders with KOTM aspirations to feature too.
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Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 11 – Favourites
KOTM Riders
Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) was the favourite for this classification pre-race. He made it into the break on the Blockhaus stage but was swallowed up by a rampaging peloton as it approached the lead-in to that brutal climb. That did show that Fraile is interested in getting out of the peloton and I think he goes once more on Wednesday. His aim will be points but there is a stage win available too. If a rider can get 30 second + lead over the final climb there is a chance with the fast descent that he wins the stage. Odds of 23.0 = great EW potential.
Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) has been very active in breaks on the last two hilly/mountain stages. He looks like he wants a stage win and is now in the mix for the KOTM jersey too (6th at present). He is a strong experienced rider who could feature once more in stage 11. The big concern (and I started this stage preview prior to stage 10) is that he put in a huge effort on the ITT on Tuesday. Will he go back-to-back? I have a hard time seeing that and 8.0 looks too short.
Jan Polanc (UAE Team Emirates) leads the KOTM classification after a brilliant stage win on the Etna climb. Polanc has a decent lead over the non-GC riders in this race and I can see him being in the break to try to maintain that lead. He had a solid ITT on Tuesday and offers decent value at 67.0 for a small EW bet.
Pierre Rolland (Canondale-Drapac) was part of an epic chase down to get into the break on stage 8. Rolland made it to the front group but was unable to make it stick and was caught in the closing kms of the stage. I would not be surprised if he tries again on stage 11. Odds at 13.0 are open to a small EW bet.
Wildcard Teams
This is tricky – I had a go at picking riders from these teams for stage 8 and wasn’t that succesful. I will just include team names and a rider with their odds. If the KOTM men get in the break then I have a hard time thinking a wildcard team rider will win the stage. BUT they will be present and stranger things have happened!
Matteo Busato (Wilier Triestina-Selle Italia) – odds of 67.0 so the EW bet works.
Aleksei Tcatevich (Gazprom Rusvelo) – no odds in the early betting market.
Lukasz Owsian (CCC Sprande Polowice) – no odds in the early betting market.
Mirco Maestri (Bardiani CSF) – no odds in the early betting market.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 11 – Outsiders
I’m going to ignore the GC riders here and select riders from the top-level teams that don’t have GC aims. Of course those riders that are now in the 15-30th position on GC may target this stage. I’m going for riders slightly lower down on GC for my tips.
Dylan Teuns (BMC Racing) – his team like to get wins and this looks like a possible stage for their riders. Their GC goals are finished after stage 9 so they may shift emphasis here. Of their riders that are some way off on GC, have climbing ability and are yet to go in a break I like Teuns best of all especially at 126.0.
Bart de Clercq (Lotto Soudal) – the team are after sprint successes and have no GC aims. De Clercq is the experienced type of rider that knows how to get into breaks. He is almost an hour down on GC so will not be marked. He won stage 7 of the 2011 Giro – the biggest result of his career so far. De Clercq is a long-shot but I feel BMC will get a rider in the break and why not him? Odds at 81.0 look interesting.
Nathan Haas (Dimension Data) came here looking for a stage win. That has yet to materialise but the profile on stage 11 looks great for him. Haas can climb and if he can get into a break he has the sprint speed to win from a small group. Haas can be backed at 151.0 = huge opportunity!
Team Sky now that their overall aspirations are in ruins may try for stage wins the rest of the way. Kenny Ellisonde would be by suggestion if any of their riders go. Ellisonde was aggressive in similar stages in the 2016 Vuelta. Ellisonde can be backed at 41.0 which is a little light for me.
Bora-Hansgrohe have been keen to get riders in breaks on hilly stages so far. I see no reason to expect anything different on stage 11. It is tough to pick one rider but I may go for Patrick Konrad. The bookies have the same idea as me and I’m not keen on his odds at 34.0.
Canondale-Drapac could send a number of riders in the break. Joe Dombrowksi and Kristian Koren are well down on GC. They would work as potential support for Rolland or if Rolland misses the break as threats in their own rights. Dombrowski can be backed at 101.0. I’m a little concerned that he hasn’t shown himself in previous breaks so I will hold off.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 11 – Tips
WON – Back Omar Fraile to win stage 11 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 23.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Dylan Teuns to win stage 11 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 126.0 with Bet365.
Back Nathan Haas to win stage 11 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 151.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Bart Declerq to win stage 11 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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